[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 271839 CCA
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Fri May 27 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Corrected Time for Surface Analysis

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1630 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 20W from 14N southward,
and moving westward at 15 kt. Scattered showers are seen from 02N
to 11N between 19W and 22W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is near 45W from 10N southward
and moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. No significant convection is
associated with this feature on the latest analysis.

A far western Caribbean tropical wave is near 84W from 17N
southward across Honduras, Nicaragua and Costa Rica, and moving
westward near 10 kt. No significant convection is observed near
this wave on the latest analysis.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough exits into the Atlantic through the coast of
Guinea-Bissau to 07N18W. An ITCZ extends from 05N22W across
01N33W to EQ46W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 01N
to 25N between 22W and 30W, and also from 03N to the coast of
Sierra Leone and Liberia.

The eastern end of the Eastern Pacific monsoon trough is
triggering scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over Costa
Rica, Panama and nearby Caribbean waters.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface trough extends from the Florida Panhandle, passing just
south of New Orleans to near Galveston, Texas. Aided by divergent
winds aloft, scattered showers and thunderstorms are present over
the northeastern Gulf. A surface ridge extends from central
Florida to near Tampico, Mexico. Moderate to fresh SW to W winds
and seas of 3 to 5 ft are over the northeast Gulf. Light to
gentle winds with 2 to 4 ft seas prevail for the rest of Gulf.

For the forecast, the surface ridge will sustain gentle to
moderate anticyclonic flow over the area through the weekend.
Fresh southerly winds will develop across the northwestern waters
by early next week as pressure gradient increases in the area.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Convergent trades are coupling with divergent upper-level winds to
produce scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms across the SE
basin, including the Windward Islands. Refer to the Monsoon
Trough/ITCZ section for additional weather in the Caribbean Sea.
Moderate to fresh ENE to ESE trades and seas of 6 to 8 ft are
noted across the central and south central basin. Gentle to
moderate trades and seas at 4 to 6 ft prevail for the remainder of
the basin.

In the forecast, the subtropical ridge north of the area will
support moderate to fresh trades across most of the Caribbean
through early next week. Fresh to strong winds will also pulse off
Colombia and Venezuela each night through early next week.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A weakening cold front extends from 31N43W to 26N60W, a surface
trough is found farther west near 28N67W. Widely scattered showers
are evident north of 24N between 50W and 72W. Another surface
trough reaches from southwest of the Azores across 31N35W to
25N46W. Widely scattered showers are occurring north of 25N
between 31W and 45W. Refer to the Tropical Waves and Monsoon
Trough/ITCZ sections for additional weather in the Atlantic
Basin.

The subtropical ridge dominates much of the tropical Atlantic,
supporting light to gentle with locally moderate winds and 2 to 5
ft seas. The exception is 5 to 7 ft seas in northerly swell north
of 28N between 53W and 67W, and moderate to fresh southerly winds
off the northern Florida coast.

For the forecast W of 55W, the subtropical ridge over the western
Atlantic will shift eastward through tonight as a cold front
moves across the southeastern U.S. Ahead of the front, fresh winds
are expected off the NE Florida coast through Sat morning. Gentle
to moderate winds will prevail across the rest of the region
through early next week. Winds will also pulse moderate to fresh
over northern Hispaniola and the Bahamas during the weekend and
into early next week.

$$

Chan
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