[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 260539
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Thu May 26 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0520 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 14W, from 13N
southward, moving westward 10 knots to 15 knots. Precipitation:
widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 04N to 10N
between 13W and 17W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 37W/38W, from 10N
southward, moving westward 10 knots to 15 knots. Precipitation:
no significant deep convective precipitation is apparent in
satellite imagery.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 78W, from 16N southward,
moving westward 10 knots.   Precipitation: numerous strong is
from 05N to Panama between 76W and 79W. Some areas of
rainshowers are from 11N southward between Colombia and the 78W
tropical wave.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of
Guinea-Bissau near 11N16W, to 04N20W, and 02N31W. The ITCZ
continues from 02N31W, to 01N40W, and 01N49W. Precipitation:
widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 120 nm to
the south of the monsoon trough, and within 60 nm to the north
of the monsoon trough between 17W and 29W. Widely scattered
moderate to isolated strong is within 165 nm to the north of the
ITCZ between 39W and 52W. Isolated moderate to locally strong is
in the remainder of the area that is from 10N southward from 60W
eastward.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front passes through SW Louisiana to Mexico near 24N98W,
and then inland in Mexico to 25N103W. Precipitation: a squall
line has been within 240 nm to the east of the cold front.
Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 28N
northward between 84W and 88W. Isolated moderate to locally
strong is elsewhere in the Gulf of Mexico from 26N northward
from 94W eastward, and in the remainder of the area that is from
90W eastward.

Southerly fresh winds are in the eastern one-third of the Gulf
of Mexico and in the Straits of Florida. Fresh to moderate
easterly winds are within 150 nm of the western part of the
Yucatan Peninsula. Moderate wind speeds or slower are in the
remainder of the Gulf of Mexico. The wave heights range from 4
feet to 6 feet.

A squall line continues to move eastward over the northern and
NE Gulf ahead of a cold front draped across the NW Gulf. The
thunderstorms in this line could produce temporary gusty winds
and rough seas through the early overnight hours. Ahead of the
front, moderate to fresh southerly flow is found in the central
and eastern Gulf with gentle to moderate winds behind it. The
cold front will continue pushing eastward through the northern
basin over the next few days. As the front reaches
the NE Gulf by Friday, the boundary will weaken. Showers and
thunderstorms are expected to persist ahead of the front through
this time. Winds will pulse to strong near the N coast of the
Yucatan Peninsula into the early overnight hours. By the
weekend, high pressure will settle over the basin, bringing
quiescent conditions.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Fresh to strong easterly winds are within 175 nm of the coast of
Venezuela between 66W and 70W. Fresh winds are in the central
one-third of the area, and in the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea.
Moderate to fresh winds are in the remainder of the Caribbean
Sea. The wave heights range from 3 feet to 5 feet in the eastern
one third of the area: from 5 feet to 7 feet in the central
one-third of the area; and from 4 feet to 6 feet in the western
one-third of the area.

The subtropical ridge north of the area will sustain moderate to
fresh E to SE winds across most of the Caribbean. Winds will
pulse to strong north of Honduras tonight and Thu night. Fresh
to strong winds will also pulse off Colombia and Venezuela at
night through the weekend.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper level trough is along 30N58W 24N64W, to 16N70W in the
Caribbean Sea. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to
isolated strong is from 20N to 23N between 50W and 54W. Other
high level clouds are within 240 nm on either side of 25N51W
16N61W.

A surface ridge passes through 31N32W to 25N40W, to 24N60W and
26N80W. A cold front/stationary front is to the north of the
area from 54W westward.  Precipitation: isolated moderate is
within 120 nm to the east and southeast of the cold front, and
within 180 nm to the north of the cold front.

The wave heights range from 7 feet to 8 feet from 25N to 27N
within 80 nm of the coast of Africa.
The wave heights range from 3 feet to 5 feet in the remainder of
the Atlantic Ocean.
Fresh NE winds are within 190 nm to the west of Africa from 17N
to 24N, and within 520 nm to the west of Africa from 24N
northward. Fresh NE winds are from 06N to 14N between 46W and
56W. Fresh SE winds are from 30N northward between 32W and 40W.
Fresh easterly winds are from Puerto Rico and Hispaniola to 24N
in the Bahamas between 70W and 77W. Moderate or slower wind
speeds are in the remainder of the Atlantic Ocean.

The subtropical ridge near Bermuda will shift eastward Thu
morning through Fri night ahead of a cold front that will move
across the southeastern U.S. The associated pressure gradient
will allow for gentle to moderate winds to prevail across most
of the region through the period. Winds off the NE
Florida coast will become moderate to fresh ahead of the cold
front on Fri and Fri night. Winds will also pulse moderate to
fresh over northern Hispaniola and the Bahamas.

$$
mt/sd
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