[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 210402
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Fri May 20 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0400 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A broad area of low pressure, known as the Central American Gyre
(CAG), has developed across Central America and the adjacent
southwest Caribbean today. The monsoon trough has begun to shift
northward across the tropical northeast Pacific, increasing SW
winds and advecting tropical moisture over Central America.
Scattered moderate convection currently ongoing in the majority
of Honduras and Nicaragua has caused localized flooding today.
Heavy to extreme rainfall is possible this weekend over portions
of Guatemala, El Salvador, Nicaragua, Honduras, Costa Rica, and
Panama. There is potential for flash flooding and mudslides,
especially across mountainous terrain. This event is expected to
last through early next week. Please refer to products issued by
your local weather service for more information.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is in the Atlantic with axis along 52W, from 02N
to 17N moving west around 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
noted from 02N-07N between 45W-55W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 14N17W to
08N23W. The ITCZ continues from 08N23W to 05N50W. Scattered weak
to moderate convection from 05N to 12N between the coast of Africa
and 28W. The eastern North Pacific monsoon trough extends across
the SW Caribbean, causing isolated moderate convection from 12N
to 15N between 76W and 82W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

The gradient between the Bermuda High and lower pressure over
Mexico is supporting moderate to fresh S to SE flow across the
majority of the basin, with strong winds occurring in the south
central basin and along the SE Texas coast. Seas are 3-5 ft in the
eastern Gulf and 4-7 ft elsewhere. Divergent upper-level flow is
supporting widespread thunderstorms across Florida and the
surrounding coastal areas. Smoke from agricultural fires over
Mexico continues to spread northward and is producing hazy skies
across the western and central basin with 3-5 mi visibility.

For the forecast, fresh to strong SE winds along with
occasionally rough seas will prevail from the south-central Gulf
to the northwest Gulf through Sun between high pressure over the
western Atlantic and broad low pressure over southern Mexico and
northern Central America. Winds and seas will diminish by early
next week as the low pressure weakens, except for pulses off fresh
to strong winds off the north coast of the Yucatan Peninsula,
mainly at night. Looking ahead, the ridge will build from the
western Atlantic across the northern through mid week, support
fresh SE return flow over the western Gulf. Currently, hazy
conditions persist over some areas of the southwestern and west-
central Gulf due to agricultural fires in southern Mexico.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see the Special Features section for information on a
potential heavy rainfall event associated with a Central American
Gyre (CAG).

The Bermuda High is interacting with lower pressure associated
with the Central American Gyre, and is forcing fresh to strong E
to SE trades over the central and W Caribbean with moderate to
fresh trades over the E Caribbean. Seas are 7-10 ft over the
central Caribbean, 6-9 ft over the W Caribbean, and 4-7 ft over
the E Caribbean.

For the forecast, winds and seas across the basin will increase
through Sat as the western Atlantic ridge strengthens north of the
region, and broad low pressure over Central America gradually
shifts west to northwestward. The strongest winds and highest seas
are expected to be over parts of the northwestern and south-
central Caribbean during this period. Looking ahead, winds and
seas will start to diminish across the basin early next week as
the pressure gradient relaxes.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

In the western Atlantic, a strong ridge along 29N is causing
light to gentle SE winds, increasing to moderate to fresh
southwest of the Bahamas and in the Windward Passage. Seas are 3-5
ft west of 55W and north of 20N. Isolated showers extend about
300 nm east of Florida where widespread moderate convection
dominates the coastal waters. In the central Atlantic, light to
gentle winds increase to moderate south of 20N with 4-7 ft seas.
In the eastern Atlantic, gentle to moderate winds prevail with
localized fresh NE winds occurring in the gaps between the Canary
Islands.

For the forecast west of 55W, a high pressure ridge along 29N
will lift northward to 30N overnight, strengthen some through the
weekend, then weaken next week. The associated pressure gradient
will allow for mainly gentle to moderate winds across the region
through the period, except for pulsing of moderate to fresh east
winds within about 120 nm north of of Hispaniola during the late
afternoons and at night through Wed.

$$
Flynn
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