[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 190908
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Thu May 19 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0850 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Global models continue to suggest a Central American Gyre (CAG)
will form across the southwest Caribbean and Central America by
Fri, and then gradually shift west to northwest across Central
America through early next week. CAGs tends to enhance the
strength of SW monsoon flow, and lift the monsoon trough well
north of its typical position. This will increase convergent
surface winds and advect abundant moisture northward, triggering
widespread strong convection over Central America. Expect heavy
rainfall commencing across Panama and Costa Rica today, then
spreading to parts of Guatemala and Honduras. Extreme rainfall is
possible across the Pacific coasts of these countries, and also
over southern Honduras and northeast Nicaragua. This will
increase the potential for flash flooding and mud landslides,
especially near valleys in mountainous terrain. Please refer to
products issued by your local weather service for more
information.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic tropical wave is along 38W, south of 11N, moving west
at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection is seen
near the southern portion of the wave from 03N to 06N between 35W
and 40W.

A Caribbean tropical wave is along 82W, south of 17N, moving
west-northwest near 10 kt. Enhanced by a mid-level trough to its
NW, scattered moderate to strong convection is evident over the
southwest Caribbean Sea from 09N to 12N between 74W and 79W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough exits the African coast of Guinea-Bissau near
11N15W and extends to 05N20W. The ITCZ continues from 05N20W to
05N35W. West of the tropical wave, the ITCZ continues from 02N40W
to 00N50W near the mouth of the Amazon River. Scattered moderate
convection is observed from 02N to 07N between 30W and 50W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge extends from the western Atlantic to the central
Gulf along 26N/27N. A trough is analyzed over the Yucatan
Peninsula. A recent scatterometer satellite pass showed fresh NE
winds off the western Yucatan Peninsula, and gentle to moderate SE
winds elsewhere. Buoy observations indicate sea are 3 to 5 ft over
the western Gulf. Light and variable breezes are noted over the
eastern Gulf, where seas are 1 to 3 ft.

For the forecast, the high pressure over the northeast Gulf will
shift eastward through Fri, as low pressure develops south of the
area over Central America. This pattern will allow an area of
moderate to fresh SE winds over the western Gulf to expand
eastward across the Gulf by late Fri. Winds and seas will then
diminish slightly across most of the basin Sun through early next
week as the pressure gradient relaxes, leaving only pulses of
fresh to occasionally strong winds at night off the northern and
western Yucatan Peninsula.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see the Special Features section for information on a
potential heavy rainfall event.

Recent observations show moderate to fresh with locally strong
easterly trades and 5-7 ft seas in the south-central basin south
of 15N. Gentle to moderate easterly trades with 4-6 ft seas are
observed across the eastern, north- central and southwest basin.
Gentle to moderate SE trades and 1-3 ft seas prevail over the
northwest Caribbean.

For the forecast, surface ridging over the western Atlantic are
supporting moderate to fresh trade winds across the east and
central Caribbean, with fresh to strong winds. Winds and seas
across the basin will increase tonight into the weekend as the
ridge strengthens and broad lower pressure forms over Central
America. The strongest winds and highest seas are expected to be
over parts of the northwest and south-central Caribbean during
this period. Looking ahead, winds and seas will start to diminish
over the eastern and central Caribbean early next week as the
ridge to the north and the lower pressure over Central America
weakens.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A weak surface ridge extends from 1021 mb high pressure centered
near 27N41W along roughly 27N to the northern Bahamas. Recent
observations show mainly gentle to moderate breezes and 3 to 5 ft
seas north of 22N across the Atlantic, except for an area of
moderate to fresh SW winds north of 28N between 50W and 55W, ahead
of a frontal boundary north of the area extending from the north
central Atlantic to near Bermuda. Moderate to fresh trade winds
are noted south of 22N, with 5 to 8 ft seas.

For the forecast west of 55W, the surface ridge along 27N will
lift north to 30N through Fri and strengthen. This pattern will
support mainly gentle to moderate breezes across the region
through early next week, except for moderate to fresh winds north
of Hispaniola starting late Fri.

$$
Christensen
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