[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 182300
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Thu May 19 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2210 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Global models continue to suggest a Central American Gyre (CAG)
will form across the southwest Caribbean and Central America by
Fri, and then gradually shift west to northwest across Central
America through early next week. CAGs tends to enhance the
strength of SW monsoon flow, and lift the monsoon trough well
north of its typical position. This will increase convergent
surface winds and advect abundant moisture northward, triggering
widespread strong convection over Central America. Expect heavy
rainfall commencing across Panama and Costa Rica tonight through
Thursday, then spreading to parts of Guatemala and Honduras.
Extreme rainfall is possible across the Pacific coasts of these
countries, and also over southern Honduras and NE Nicaragua. This
will increase the potential for flash flooding and mud landslides,
especially near valleys in mountainous terrain. Please refer to
products issued by your local weather service for more
information.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A Atlantic tropical wave is along 36W, south of 11N, moving west
at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection is seen
near the southern portion of the wave from 03N to 05.5N between
33W and 40W.

A Caribbean tropical wave is along 80W, south of 16N, moving
west-northwest near 10 kt. Enhanced by a mid-level trough to it's
NW, scattered moderate to strong convection is evident over the
SW Caribbean Sea from 11N to 15N between 78W and 83W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough exits the African coast of Senegal near
15.5N16.5W and extends to 11N24W. Earlier convection occurring
offshore of Africa has dissipated. An ITCZ extends from west of
the Atlantic tropical wave near 02N38W to north of the Amazon
River Delta area near 01.5N50W. Numerous moderate to isolated
strong convection is noted from 00N to 05.0N between 40W and the
Brazilian coast.

The eastern end of the Pacific monsoon trough and an embedded
1012 mb low near 10.5N77.5W are aiding in forcing scattered
moderate convection near the Panama and Colombia coasts and
adjacent Caribbean waters.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge reaches west-southwestward from a 1019 mb high
over the north central Gulf to near 28N87W. Light to gentle winds
with 1 to 3 ft seas are found near the high across the E Gulf.
Gentle to moderate SE winds and seas at 2 to 3 ft are present over
the SW Gulf, while moderate to fresh S winds and seas of 4 to 5
ft dominate the NW Gulf.

For the forecast, the high will maintain moderate to fresh S to
SE winds over the W Gulf through Sat, and light to gentle
variable winds across the E Gulf through Thu afternoon. Then a
broad area of low pressure is expected to develop along Central
America Fri, tightening the pressure gradient between itself and
the Bermuda High. This should allow moderate to fresh SE to S
winds to spread eastward across the entire Gulf thru early next
week. Also, fresh to strong E to SE winds are forecast to develop
off the northern Yucatan peninsula Fri into Sun night.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see the Special Features section for information on a
potential heavy rainfall event.

Scattered showers across central and eastern Cuba and the Cayman
Islands earlier today have ended as the supporting surface trough
has drifted NW across the Yucatan Channel. Refer to the Tropical
Wave and Monsoon Trough/ITCZ sections for additional weather in
the basin. Moderate to fresh easterly trades with 5 to 7 ft seas
are found over the south-central basin, north of Colombia to 15N.
Gentle to moderate easterly trades and seas at 4 to 5 ft are
evident across the eastern, north-central and SW basin. Gentle to
moderate trades and seas of 2 to 4 ft prevail for the NW basin.

For the forecast, surface ridging over the western Atlantic will
continue to support moderate to fresh trade winds across the
eastern and central Caribbean through today, with fresh to strong
winds pulsing off Venezuela and northwest Colombia. Winds and
seas across the basin are expected to increase Thu night into the
weekend as the ridge strengthens and broad low pressure forms
along Central America. Strongest winds are expected to be over
the northwest, including the Gulf of Honduras, and south-central
Caribbean during this period.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough runs southward from 28N76W across the central
Bahamas to eastern Cuba. Convergent S to SW  winds east of the
trough are combining with mid-level wind shear to trigger
scattered moderate convection from 22N to 30N between 57W and the
central/SE Bahamas. A dissipating stationary front runs
southwestward from southwest of Madeira across 31N19W to 27N28W
with a surface trough to its west near 28N32W. Scattered moderate
convection is seen near these features north of 26N between 20W
and 35W. Southwesterly upper- level winds are streaming widespread
thick cirrus across the east-central Atlantic, including the Cabo
Verde Islands.

The Atlantic ridge stretches west-southwestward from a 1020 mb
high near Madeira across 31N25W to the NW Bahamas. This feature
is promoting light to gentle winds and 3 to 5 ft seas north of 20N
between 35W and the Florida coast/Bahamas. Farther east, gentle
to moderate with locally fresh NE to E trades and 5 to 8 ft seas
in northerly swell is evident north of 25N between the African
coast and 35W. Gentle to moderate NE to ESE trades and seas at 5
to 8 ft are noted from the Equator to 20N between 27W and the
Lesser Antilles. Gentle to moderate SSW to WNW monsoonal winds and
seas of 4 to 5 ft prevail for the remainder of the Atlantic
Basin.

For the forecast west of 55W, the Atlantic ridge across the area
will weaken slightly this evening into Thu as the tail of a cold
front drags eastward to the north of 30N. The ridge will restore
on Thu and support mainly light to gentle variable winds across
the region through Sun night, except for moderate to fresh winds
north of Hispaniola and the Great Bahama Bank.

$$
Stripling
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