[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 170401
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Tue May 17 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0400 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is located in the eastern Caribbean Sea along 70W,
from 04N to 16N. It's moving west at 15 to 20 kt. This position
corresponds with an area of enhanced moisture seen on total
precipitable water imagery. Scattered moderate isolated strong
convection is observed in Venezuela and Colombia, south of 11N
between 66W and 74W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea-Bissau near
12N16W to 07N21W. The ITCZ continues from 07N21W to the coast of
Brazil near 03N51W. Scattered moderate with isolated strong
convection is noted within 120 nm of the coast of Sierra Leone,
from 02N to 07N between 19W and 32W, and from 02N to 06N between
39W and 52W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

High pressure of 1015 mb located over the central Gulf dominates
the pattern. Gentle to moderate southerlies are observed in the
western Gulf with moderate to fresh easterlies in the Bay of
Campheche. Winds are light in the eastern Gulf. Buoys are
reporting seas of 2-4 ft in the western Gulf and Bay of Campeche,
with 1-3 ft seas elsewhere.

For the forecast, high pressure over the area will maintain
gentle to moderate breezes and slight seas into mid week. SE winds
will increase over the northwest Gulf by late Wed as the high
pressure shifts east of the region. Farther south, fresh northeast
winds will pulse west of the Yucatan peninsula each night through
mid week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The gradient between high pressure in the Atlantic and lower
pressure over South America is maintaining moderate to fresh
easterlies in the central and eastern Caribbean. Winds are light
to gentle in the NW Caribbean, where a surface trough is analyzed
along 83W. Seas are 5 to 7 ft in the central and eastern
Caribbean and 2-4 ft in the NW portion of the basin. Scattered
showers and isolated thunderstroms are observed in the SW
Caribbean along the monsoon trough.

For the forecast, surface ridging over the western Atlantic will
continue to support moderate to fresh trade winds across the east
and central Caribbean through mid week, with fresh to strong winds
pulsing off Venezuela and northwest Colombia. Winds and seas
across the basin may increase through late week as the ridge
strengthens.

Looking ahead, a broad area of low pressure is expected to form
over northern Central America by the end of the week. Winds and
seas across the basin may increase through late week as this
borad low pressure forms and the ridge north of the area
strenghtnes. Moist onshore flow may also promote heavy rainfall
across northern Central America and the Yucatan Peninsula by late
week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A mid-level trough is moving over the far western Atlantic,
causing scattered weak showers between Cuba and Bermuda,
including portions of the Bahamas. A 1025 mb high in the central
Atlantic near 29N54W is causing gentle to moderate SE flow across
the majority of the sub-tropical western Atlantic, where seas are
4-6 ft. In the eastern Atlantic, a weak cold front extends from
31N27W to 28N40W to 31N49W. Winds are gentle on both sides of the
front, but 8-10 ft swell is observed behind the front. Winds
increase to moderate to fresh south of 20N, with 8-10 ft seas
south of 15N between 45W and the Lesser Antillies. The remainder
of the basin is dominated by light to gentle winds and 4-8 ft
seas.

For the forecast west of 55W, a surface ridge along 28N will
shift east by Tue ahead of a weak cold front approaching from the
north. The front will move over the waters north of 28N between
northeast Florida and 55W through late Wed. Fresh east to
southeast winds will pulse north of Hispaniola tonight.

$$
Flynn
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