[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 151745
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Sun May 15 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1750 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is just to the east of the Windward Islands with
axis south of 15N and along 60W, moving west at 15 kt. The wave is
in a unfavorable wind shear environment, however shallow moisture
is supporting scattered to isolated showers near Barbados and
Trinidad and Tobago. Winds associated with this wave are in the
15-20 kt range with seas to 7 ft as indicated by recent altimeter
data.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Sierra Leone near
08N13W to 06N18W where the ITCZ begins and continues along 03N30W
to the coast of Brazil near 00N50W. Heavy showers and tstms are
off the coast of Liberia, Africa from 02N to 07N between 06W and
14W. Scattered moderate convection is elsewhere from 02S to 05N W
of 29W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A middle to upper level short-wave trough over the NE Gulf of
Mexico and shallow moisture continue to support and area of
scattered showers and tstms as indicated by GLM data. A surface
trough coincides with that region of showers, which extends from
the Florida Big Bend to 26N87W. The remainder basin is under the
influence of weak high pressure anchored by a 1016 mb high
centered near 26N92W, which is providing light to gentle variable
winds. Recent altimeter data show seas in the 2 to 4 ft range
basin-wide while both infrared and microwave satellite data show
a very dry envronment, which is supporting fair weather. Otherwise,
ongoing agricultural fires in Mexico are producing some areas of
slight to moderate haze mainly in the southwestern sections of
the Gulf of Mexico.

For the forecast, high pressure over the area will continue to
produce a gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow through midweek.
Fresh northeast winds will pulse west of the Yucatan peninsula
each night through Wed night. Fresh southeast return flow is
expected over the NW and west-central Gulf beginning on Wed night
due to a tighter pressure gradient over the western Gulf.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Isolated showers and tsms prevail over portions of the central and
western Caribbean between 75W and 85W associated with a surface
trough south of 21N and axis along 82W. The convection is also
being supported by abundant moisture and middle- to upper-level
diffluent flow just to the east of a trough aloft. Recent
scatterometer data show moderate to fresh winds behind this wave
over the SW Caribbean where seas are in the 7 to 8 ft range.
Moderate to fresh winds are elsewhere across the central and
eastern Caribbean where seas are in the 5 to 7 ft range. Over the
far NW Caribbean, winds are variable and light to gentle with seas
to 2 ft.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient across the basin will
support fresh to strong trades across the southern eastern and
central Caribbean tonight. Thereafter, moderate trade winds will
prevail across the basin, except for pulsing fresh to strong
easterly winds over the southern portion mainly N of Colombia and
in the Gulf of Venezuela. A tropical wave along 60W will approach
the Windward Islands this afternoon and move across the eastern
Caribbean from tonight through Tue. Moisture accompanying this
wave is expected to increase the chances for showers in the
eastern Caribbean through midweek.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...




For the forecast west of 65W, high pressure over the area will
change little through Mon. The high will shift eastward as a cold
front approaches the waters off northeast Florida on Tue. The
northern part of the cold front is expected to reach the northeast
part of the area on Wed, while its remainder becomes stationary
over the northern forecast waters. Moderate to fresh southwest
winds will precede the front. Otherwise, fresh to locally strong
east to southeast winds within 120 nm north of Hispaniola will
persist through Mon night.

$$
Ramos
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