[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 141020
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Sat May 14 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 50W from 02N
to 14N moving westward around 20 kt. The CIMSS MIMIC satellite
derived TPW (Total Precipitable Water) depicts a pool of deep
moisture trailing the wave to near 34W. Satellite imagery shows
scattered moderate convection east of the wave axis to 40W from
07N to 09N, and within 150 nm west of the wave axis from 05N to
08N. The wave is forecast to approach the Windward Islands early
Mon, and move across the eastern Caribbean from Mon and through
Tue.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis passes through the coastal plains of
Senegal near 11N15W, and extends southwestward to 06N17W and
to 04N20W, where latest scatterometer data indicates that it
transitions to the ITCZ. The ITCZ continues from 04N20W to 02N30W
and to 01N42W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection
is within 30 nm of the ITCZ between 21W-25W. Scattered moderate
convection is within 180 nm south of the trough between 16W-19W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

The wind flow pattern across the Gulf is being driven by a weak
1015 mb high pressure center that is analyzed over the central
Gulf near 26N90W. This feature is maintaining rather stable and
tranquil conditions throughout the basin. Overnight ASCAT data
passes depict gentle to moderate east-southeast winds west of 90W,
except for mainly fresh northeast to east winds in the eastern
Bay of Campeche. Gentle to light northeast to east winds are east
of 90W, except for light west winds north of 28N. Wave heights are
in the 2-4 ft range, except for slighter higher wave heights of
3-5 ft in the eastern Bay of Campeche.

It is possible that hazy skies may be in the west central and SW
Gulf of Mexico due to ongoing agricultural fires in Mexico.

For the forecast, the high pressure over the area will continue
to produce a gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow through the
period. Fresh northeast to east winds will pulse offshore the N
and W coasts of the Yucatan peninsula each night through Wed
night, with the exception of fresh to strong winds tonight.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A rather broad deep layer trough is over the western Caribbean
west of 80W. At the surface, a trough is along 81W north of 13N
to across central Cuba and to the Straits of Florida near 24N81W.
Satellite imagery shows numerous moderate to strong convection
east of the surface trough to 74W and from 13N to 16N. Overnight
ASCAT data over this area indicated strong to near gale-force
winds with this convection. Broken to overcast multilayer clouds,
with embedded scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are
over rest of central Caribbean north of 13N between 70W-74W.
The ASCAT data indicated moderate to fresh trades elsewhere east
of 79W, and gentle trades west of 79W.

Wave heights are in the 7-9 ft range are in the south-central
Caribbean, especially within the area of the numerous moderate
to strong convection. Wave heights elsewhere are 6-8 ft north
of 15N between 72W-80W, 5-7 ft elsewhere east of 72W, 3-6 ft west
of 80W except for lower wave heights of 2-4 ft in the Gulf of
Honduras, N of 18N west of 85W and also south of 11N west 80W.

For the forecast, Atlantic high pressure building westward north
of the Caribbean Sea will support fresh to strong trades across
the eastern and central Caribbean through Sun night. Thereafter,
mainly fresh trade winds are expected in the Colombia basin and in
the Gulf of Venezuela through Wed. Moisture associated with a
tropical wave, currently located east of the forecast waters near
50W is forecast to approach the Windward Islands early on Mon,
and move across the eastern Caribbean from Mon and through Tue.
Moisture accompanying with this wave is expected to increase the
chances for showers in the eastern Caribbean through at least Tue
night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A mid to upper-level low is noted just offshore the southeastern
U.S. Its associated trough extends south-southwestward to western
Cuba and to the western Caribbean Sea. A weak surface low of 1015
mb is offshore the southern Georgia coast near 31N80W. Satellite
imagery shows scattered moderate to isolated strong convection
moving in a general northeastward motion over western part of the
area south of 27N and between 70W-78W, including most of the
Bahama Islands. Similar convection is over the northern waters
north of 29N between 71W-75W, and also presently developing
within 90 nm of the surface low. East of the mid to upper-level
trough, a broad mid to upper anticyclone is evident east to 55W.
At the surface, high pressure, anchored by a 1027 mb high center
that is about 270 nm east of Bermuda, controls the wind flow
pattern across the central and eastern Atlantic areas. Overnight
ASCAT data passes revealed generally moderate to fresh northeast
to east trades from 07N to 21N east of 58W, and west of 58W to
77W. A weak pressure patten west of 77W is allowing for light
southeast to south winds over that part of the area. Light to
gentle trades are south of 07N east of 55W.

Wave heights range from 7-8 ft from 11N to 20N between 52W-62W,
also from 20N to 26N between 60W-65W and from 06N to 14N between
47W-50W. Wave heights range from 6-7 ft from the Cabo Verde
Islands to 20N and between the Cabo Verde Islands and 55W. The
wave heights range from 4-6 ft in the remainder of the Atlantic.

For the forecast, the high pressure over the area will shift
eastward through early next week as a cold front approaches the
waters northeast of northern Florida. The northern part of the
cold front is expected to reach the northeast part of the area Wed
and Wed night, while its remainder becomes stationary over the
north-central and northwest forecast waters. Moderate to fresh
southwest winds will precede the front.  Fresh to strong east to
southeast winds within 120 nm north of Hispaniola will change
little through Sun night.

$$
Aguirre
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