[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 131042
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Fri May 13 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1030 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 42W from 02N
to 14N. It is moving westward at about 15 kt. Satellite imagery
shows scattered moderate convection along and within 240 nm west
of the wave from 04N to 07N, and east of the wave to 35W from
05N to 08N. Expect for convection to increase some today as the
wave interacts with the southern part of a broad upper trough.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Senegal
near 14N17W. It continues southwestward to 08N20W and to 05N23W,
where latest scatterometer data indicates that it transitions to
the ITCZ and extends to 03N29W and to 04N34W and to 01N39W.
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is seen from
03N to 10N between 12W-17W, from 03N to 08N between 17W-22W, and
within 30 nm of the ITCZ between 25W-28W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1016 mb high center is analyzed near 26N89W. The associated
broad surface anticyclonic consists of a gentle to moderate wind
flow. The tail-end of a weak western Atlantic trough reaches
southwestward to just northeast of Key West.

Wave heights throughout the Gulf are in the 2-4 ft range, except
for slighter higher waves of 3-5 ft from 22N to 26N west of 94W.

It is possible that hazy conditions may be in some areas of the
west-central and southwestern Gulf due to ongoing agricultural
fires in Mexico.

For the forecast, the high pressure over the area will maintain
a gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow through the period. Fresh
northeast to east winds will pulse offshore the N and W coasts of
the Yucatan peninsula tonight, and fresh to strong on Sat night.
Afterward, mainly fresh winds will prevail each night through Tue
night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Central Atlantic high pressure stretches southwestward to just
N of the northeastern Caribbean. The pressure difference between
the high pressure and lower pressure over the Caribbean is
allowing for fresh to strong trades to exist south of 16N and
east of 74W. Seas there are in the 6-8 ft range. Water vapor
imagery depicts a well pronounced mid and upper-level trough
that extends from low pressure off the southeastern U.S.
southwestward to western Caribbean and farther southwest to
Honduras. A vigorous SW jet stream east of this trough is helping
to sustain scattered showers and thunderstorms over the central
Caribbean from 13N to 20N and between 72W-80W. Isolated showers
are possible elsewhere east of 81W and north of 13N.

Moderate to fresh trades are over the remainder of the sea. A
recent altimeter data pass revealed wave heights of 2-4 ft between
74W-80W. Similar wave heights are west of 80W, including the Gulf
of Honduras area. Slighter higher wave heights of 3-5 ft are
north of 18N between 76W-80W, and in the Windward Passage.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are quickly increasing along
and just offshore the coast of Panama and over extreme northwest
part of Colombia.

For the forecast, the Atlantic high pressure will build westward
through the weekend increasing the trades across mainly the
eastern and central Caribbean through Sat. Thereafter, mainly
fresh trades are expected in the Colombia basin and in the Gulf
of Venezuela through Tue night. A tropical wave may bring
scattered showers to portions of the eastern Caribbean starting
late Tue.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough extends from a 1013 mb low pressure center that
is located just off the Georgia coast at 32N81W, south-
southwestward to Florida near Fort Pierce. The trough continues
southwestward to the far southeastern Gulf of Mexico. A large mid
to upper-level low is centered over the 1013 mb surface low. The
surface trough has weakened the gradient over the waters between
Florida and the Bahamas. Overnight ASCAT data indicates light to
gentle winds over these waters.

A broad mid to upper-level trough associated to this low
stretches southwestward to across the Florida peninsula and to the
western Caribbean Sea. Strong jet dynamics eat of this trough is
supporting areas of moderate rain, with embedded scattered showers
and thunderstorms from 20N to 31N and between 65W-74W. Similar
activity is in the Windward Passage. To the northwest of this
activity, scattered showers and recently developed thunderstorms
are noted north of 27N and between 74W-80W. Isolated showers and
thunderstorms are south of 27N and west of 74W, including the
eastern section of the Straits of Florida.

To the east of the shower and thunderstorm activity, high pressure
is the main weather system that is driving the broad synoptic
wind flow pattern across the central and eastern Atlantic. The
high pressure is associated to a 1028 mb high center north of
the area at 34W57W and to a 1024 mb high center at 37W40W.

Broken to overcast mid and high clouds are streaming northeastward
over the eastern Atlantic areas from 12N to 26N and east of 38W.

The overnight ASCAT data depicts a wide area of fresh to strong
southeast to south winds from 23N to 29N between 65W-71W. Fresh
to strong east to southeast winds are seen from 20N to 23N between
68W-71W. Seas are in the range of 6-8 ft within the area of
fresh to strong winds. Fresh, to at times, strong northerly winds
are from 14N to 21N between 19W-25W. Moderate to fresh northeast
to east winds are from 13N to 25N between 55W-65W. Fresh northeast
winds are from 07N to 12N between 42W-48W. Fresh to moderate
easterly winds are elsewhere over the Atlantic. Wave heights are
in the 4-6 ft range over most of the remainder of the Atlantic
south of 30N and east of about 60W eastward, except for higher
wave heights of 5-7 ft from 07N to 12N between 42W-48W, from 15N
to 20N between 20W-24W and from 04N to 23N between 44W-55W.

For the forecast, the aforementioned 1013 mb low pressure will
continue to weaken while slowly moving southwestward and inland
Georgia today. High pressure across the central Atlantic will
build westward into the region in the wake of the low through Sat.
The pressure gradient between these two systems will result in an
area of fresh to strong southerly winds north of about 22N
between 65W and 75W through Fri. These winds will diminish
slightly on Sat, then shift east and northeast through Mon night
as a cold front passes to the north and northeast of the
Bahamas. The front will reach the northeast forecast waters Tue
and Tue night preceded by moderate to fresh southwest winds
north of 28N and east of 66W.

$$
Aguirre
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