[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 130601
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Fri May 13 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0540 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 40W/41W, from 13N
southward, moving westward 10 to 15 knots. Precipitation:
isolated moderate to locally strong is within 440 nm to the west
of the tropical wave, and within 250 nm to the east of the
tropical wave.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Senegal
near 14N17W, to 08N20W and 05N23W. The ITCZ continues from
05N23W, to 03N28W and 03N33W, and 01N39W. Precipitation: widely
scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 02N to the monsoon
trough/ITCZ, between 10W and 28W. Isolated moderate to locally
strong is from the ITCZ to 07N between 27W and 36W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1015 mb high pressure center is near 25N87W. Broad surface
anticyclonic wind flow is in the Gulf of Mexico.

Gentle to moderate winds are in the Gulf of Mexico. The wave
heights range from 2 feet to 4 feet.

It is possible that hazy conditions may be in the west central
and SW Gulf of Mexico, due to ongoing agricultural fires in
Mexico.

High pressure over the area will maintain a gentle to moderate
anticyclonic flow through the period. Fresh to strong northeast
to east winds will pulse offshore the N and W coasts of the
Yucatan peninsula tonight, then mainly fresh winds will prevail
each night through Tue night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Broad deep layer cyclonic wind flow is in the NW Caribbean Sea,
and in much of Central America. Precipitation: broken to
overcast multilayered clouds, and isolated moderate to locally
strong, are to the east of the line that runs from eastern
Honduras to SE Cuba. The comparatively greatest concentration of
precipitation is within 270 nm to the south-southwest of the
southernmost point of the Windward Passage.

The wave heights range from 4 feet to 7 feet in the central and
eastern sections of the Caribbean Sea. The wave heights are
reaching 5 feet in the Yucatan Channel. The wave heights range
from 2 feet to 4 feet elsewhere. Fresh winds are from the
Greater Antilles southward from Jamaica eastward. Moderate winds
are in the Windward Passage. Moderate wind speeds or slower are
in the remainder of the Caribbean Sea.

Atlantic Ocean high pressure building westward north of the
Caribbean Sea will increase the trades across the eastern and
central Caribbean through Sat. Thereafter, mainly fresh trade
winds are expected in the Colombia basin and in the Gulf of
Venezuela through Tue night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough extends from a 1012 mb 32N79W low pressure
center, to SE Florida just to the east of Lake Okeechobee, to NW
Cuba near 23N82W. Precipitation: scattered strong is about 720
nm to the southeast of the 1012 mb low pressure center, from 24N
to 25N between 68W and 70W. Broken to overcast multilayered
clouds, and other isolated moderate to locally strong
rainshowers are from 20N northward from 60W westward. Light to
gentle north to northeast winds are between the surface trough
and the eastern coast of Florida. A wide swath of fresh to
strong southeast to south winds is from 20N to 28N between 65W
and 75W. The wave heights range from 8 feet to 9 feet due to
long-period north to northeast swell within the area of north to
northeast winds. The wave heights range from 6 feet to 8 feet
within the area of the fresh to strong southeast to south winds.

Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean
from 14N northward from 60W eastward. A 1030 mb high pressure
center is near 35N55W. A second 1030 mb high pressure center is
near 38N40W.

Mostly fresh to some strong northerly wind flow is from 14N to
21N between 19W and 25W. Mostly fresh to some strong easterly
wind flow is from 13N to 25N between 55W and 65W. Mostly fresh
to some strong NE winds are 07N to 12N between 42W and 48W.
Strong SE wind flow is from 23N to 27N between 70W and 73W.
Fresh and moderate wind flow is elsewhere in the Atlantic Ocean.
Moderate and fresh large scale anticyclonic wind flown is in the
remainder of the area. The wave heights range from 4 feet to 6
feet in most of the Atlantic Ocean, from 30N southward from 60W
eastward. The exceptions are: some 7 foot wave heights from 07N
to 12N between 42W and 48W; from 15N to 20N between 20W and 23W;
and from 04N to 23N between 44W and 55W.

Low pressure of 1012 mb centered just off the South Carolina
coast will continue to weaken while slowly moving southwestward
to inland Georgia on Fri. High pressure across the central
Atlantic will build westward into the region in the wake of the
low through Sat. The pressure gradient between these two systems
will result in an area of fresh to strong southerly winds north
of about 22N between 65W and 75W through Fri. These winds will
diminish slightly on Sat, then shift east and northeast through
Mon night as a cold front passes to the north and northeast of
the Bahamas. The front reach the northeast forecast waters Tue
and Tue night preceded by moderate to fresh southwest
winds north of 28N and east of 66W.

$$
MT/JA
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