[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 121746
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Thu May 12 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1630 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a central Atlantic tropical wave is analyzed along
36W from 01N to 13N. It is moving westward at 8 to 10 kt. This
wave is denoted on GOES16 visible satellite imagery and in the
CIRA precipitable water animation imagery. Scattered moderate
convection associated with the wave is observed from 03.5N to
08N between 33W and 41W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic waters from the coast of
Guinea-Bissau near 11N16W and extends southwestward to 08N17W,
where it transitions to the ITCZ and continues to the ITCZ and
continues to 05N22W and to 04N29W. Scattered moderate convection
is noted along the ITCZ from 01N to 09N between 17W and 29W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1018 mb high pressure center is analyzed over the north-
central Gulf near 29N92W. This high pressure center is embedded
within a broad area of  high pressure that extends from the
eastern U.S. seaboard southwestward to the Gulf. Associated
anticyclonic flow throughout the Gulf consists of gentle to
moderate NE to E winds east of 93W, including the Bay of
Campeche, and SE to S winds west of 93W and north of 20N. Seas
generally range from 2 to 4 ft across the basin.

Hazy conditions are possible in the west-central and southwestern
Gulf due to ongoing agricultural fires in Mexico.

For the forecast, high pressure over the area will maintain a
gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow through the period.
Moderate to fresh north to northeast winds in the eastern Gulf
will diminish to gentle Thu night. Fresh to strong north to
northeast winds will pulse offshore the the Yucatan peninsula
tonight, becoming fresh east winds late Fri night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A stationary front extends from the Atlantic across the far
eastern edge of Cuba and into the Caribbean to near 18N81W.
Atlantic high pressure stretches southwestward to just north of
the northeastern Caribbean. The gradient between the high
pressure and front is resulting in moderate to fresh east to
southeast trades across the central and eastern Caribbean,
generally west of 80W and south of the front. Elsewhere, gentle
to moderate northeast to east trades prevail. Seas of 4 to 7 ft
are noted in a recent Altimeter pass across the central and
eastern Caribbean Sea, mainly north of 12N. Elsewhere, seas are
generally 2 to 4 ft, with 5 ft reaching into the Yucatan
Channel. Satellite imagery reveals isolated showers and
thunderstorms over most of the basin east of 83W, including
Hispaniola and Puerto Rico.

For the forecast, low pressure offshore the southeastern United
States will drift westward, and move inland on Fri. High
pressure will build westward in the wake of the low through Fri.
The associated gradient will increase the trades to fresh to
locally strong across the Caribbean east of 80W through Sun
night, diminishing to mainly fresh Mon.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1012 mb surface low analyzed east of the Florida peninsula
near 29N77.5W with a trough extending from the center of the low
to 24N77W has dissipated as of 15Z, leaving the surface trough
from 29.5N79W to 23.5N79W. Isolated moderate convection is
present near the axis of the remaining trough from 25N to 34N
between 76W and 81W. To the east, a stationary front extends
from 31N65W, south-southwest to the far eastern edge of Cuba
near 20N75W. Scattered to numerous moderate convection is noted
on either side of the front from 20N to 31N between 60W and 72W,
with isolated strong along the front from 23N to 29N between 66W
and 69W.

Light to gentle north to northeast winds exist between the
surface trough and east coast of Florida, while a wide swath of
mainly fresh to strong southeast to south winds are present from
18N to 30N between 60W and 70W. Wave heights are in the range of
8 to 10 ft due to long-period north to northeast swell within
the area of north to northeast winds, and 6 to 8 ft within the
area of fresh to strong southeast to south winds. Wave heights
of 5 to 7 ft are elsewhere northeast and east of the Bahamas to
60W.

Further east, strong high pressure ridging, anchored by a 1032
mb high well north of the area near 42N41W and a 1029 mb high
near 37N51W prevails over the central and eastern Atlantic.
Broad anticyclonic flow covers the Atlantic north of 14N and
east of 60W eastward. Mostly moderate to locally fresh
anticyclonic wind flow exists south of 28N across the central
Atlantic, along with seas of 4 to 7 ft east of 60W.

For the forecast, the aforementioned low near 29N77.5W  will
weaken while slowly moving southwestward to inland Georgia on
Fri. Fresh to strong north to northeast winds and large seas are
north and northeast of the Bahamas. These conditions will shift
westward today and diminish. High pressure across the central
Atlantic will build westward into the region in the wake of the
low through Sat. The pressure gradient between these two systems
will result in an area of fresh to strong southerly winds north
of about 22N between 65W and 75W through Fri.

$$
Nepaul/jrl
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