[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 102349
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Wed May 11 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2200 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave in the Atlantic Ocean extends from the Equator to
13N, with an axis along 29W/30W. The wave is moving westward at
15 to 20 kts. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is
noted from 02S to 07N between 24W and 29W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea near 10N14W
to 08N15W. The ITCZ extends from 08N15W to 05N27W, then continues
west of the tropical wave from 01N30W to 00N34W to 03N44W to the
northern coast of Brazil near 01N50W. Scattered moderate and
isolated strong convection is noted from 05N to 09N between 18W
and 24W, and from 01S to 05N between 44W and 51W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface trough is analyzed from 28N88W to 23N85W, with another
surface trough analyzed from 24N96W to 19N94W. No convection is
noted with either trough. Otherwise, the Gulf of Mexico remains
under the influence of high pressure centered north of the area,
supporting moderate to fresh E-SE flow across the basin. Seas are
4 to 6 ft in the western Gulf and 3 to 5 ft in the eastern Gulf.
Hazy conditions due to ongoing agricultural fires over Mexico may
still be prevalent over the west-central and SW Gulf.

For the forecast, high pressure across the eastern U.S. will
build SSW across the basin through early Wed then shift slowly
west through Thu as a new center develops across the NW Gulf,
then drifts east and remains across the N central Gulf through
Sat. This will produce moderate to fresh easterly winds across
much of the Gulf through Wed night. These winds will pulse to
strong over the eastern Bay of Campeche this evening and again Wed
evening. Winds will weaken basin wide Thu through Sat as the high
becomes centered over northern portions of the basin.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A ridge of high pressure north of the basin is maintaining
moderate to fresh trades in the eastern and central Caribbean, as
well as in the vicinity of the Gulf of Honduras. Seas are 4 to 6
ft in these areas. Elsewhere, mainly gentle winds prevail and seas
are less than 5 ft. Scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms are noted over much of northern Colombia and western
Venezuela, as well as over Panama with adjacent areas offshore
seeing some as well. A small area of similar convection is from
13N to 15N between 77W and 80W.

For the forecast, a surface ridge north of the Caribbean will
maintain moderate to fresh trades across the basin east of 78W
through this evening. Low pressure offshore of the SE United
States will drift southwest and move to mid way between South
Carolina and Bermuda tonight, then drift west and eventually
inland on Fri. The ridge across the Atlantic to the east of this
feature will build westward behind the low late tonight through
Fri and act to increase tradewinds to fresh to locally strong
across the Caribbean east of 75W.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The western Atlantic is dominated by a cut-off 1007 mb low
pressure area just north of the area near 32N71W that is slowly
drifting west-northwest. This system is maintaining fresh to
strong N winds north of 29N and west of 73W. Seas in this area
are 10 to 15 ft. A cold front stretches from 31N63W to 25N76W to
central Cuba near 22N78W. Scattered thunderstorms area noted north
of 25N between 60W and 68W, as well as within 180 nm southeast of
the front south of 25N including over the Turks and Caicos Islands
and eastern Cuba. Moderate west-northwesterlies behind the
front shift to moderate to fresh southerlies east of the front.
Seas of 8 ft or greater extend south to 25N and east to 68W. A
surface trough is analyzed in the central Atlantic from 29N49W to
21N47W with isolated to scattered showers possible near the axis.
Otherwise, ridging dominates the remainder of the tropical
Atlantic waters, along with moderate to locally fresh winds, and
4 to 7 ft seas in primarily NE-E swell.

For the forecast west of 55W, the cold front will move east-
southeast and stall from just west of Bermuda to the Windward
Passage by Wed morning, then gradually dissipate into late week.
A 1007 mb low pres center located east-southeast and offshore of
Cape Hatteras, North Carolina will move southwest to between
Bermuda and the SE U.S. coast by Wed, then drift wets and inland
over Georgia Fri. Fresh to strong N winds and large N-NE swell
associated with this system will impact areas west of 70W and
north of 28N through Thu before diminishing. High pressure across
the central Atlc will build west into the region behind the low
late Wed through Sat.

$$
Lewitsky
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