[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 101535
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Tue May 10 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1530 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic tropical wave extends from the Equator to 19N, with
an axis along 28W. It is moving westward at 15-20 kts. Convection
associated with this wave is scattered and weak.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Sierra Leone near
07N12W to 06N14W. The ITCZ continues from 06N14W to 04N25W. West
of the tropical wave, the ITCZ continues from 01N29W to 02N50W.
Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 03N
to 07N between 12W and 22W. West of 30W, scattered moderate
convection is noted within 180 nm south and 60 nm north of the
ITCZ.

GULF OF MEXICO...

The Gulf of Mexico remains under the influence of high pressure,
supporting moderate to fresh E-SE flow across the basin. Seas are
5-7 ft in the western Gulf and 3-5 ft in the eastern Gulf. No
convection is present, but hazy conditions due to ongoing
agricultural fires over Mexico may still be prevalent over the W
and SW Gulf.

For the forecast, high pressure across the eastern U.S. will
build SSW across the basin through early Wed then shift slowly W
through sat. This will produce moderate to fresh easterly winds
across much of the Gulf through Wed night. These winds will pulse
to strong over the eastern Bay of Campeche this evening and again
Wed evening. Winds will weaken basin wide Thu through Sat as the
ridge shifts W.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A ridge of high pressure is maintaining moderate to fresh trades
in the eastern and central Caribbean, as well as in the Gulf of
Honduras. Seas are 5-7 ft in these areas. Elsewhere, mainly
gentle winds prevail and seas are less than 5 ft. A small area of
scattered moderate convection is noted in the SW Caribbean from
12N to 14N between 78W and 80W.

For the forecast, a surface ridge stretches from the central
Atlantic southwestward to N of Puerto Rico along 23N. This feature
will maintain moderate to fresh trades across the basin E of 78W
through Wed. Low pressure offshore of the eastern United States
will drift SW and move to mid way between Georgia and Bermuda
tonight, then drift W and eventually inland by Fri. The ridge
across the Atlantic to the E of this feature will build westward
behind the low late Wed through Fri and act to increase tradewinds
to fresh to locally strong across the Carib E of 75W.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The western Atlantic is dominated by a cut-off 1006 mb low near
33N71W that is slowly drifting south. This system is maintaining
fresh to strong N winds north of 28N and west of 73W. Seas in this
area are 10-14 ft and building. A dissipating cold front
stretches from 31N66W to 25N78W with minimal convection. A pre-
frontal trough stretches from 31N64W through the Turks and
Caicos. This system is generating scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection within 120 nm of the trough axis. Moderate
northwesterlies behind the through shift to moderate to fresh
southerlies east of the trough. 8 ft seas extend south to 25N and
east to 70W. Moderate winds and seas dominate the central and
eastern tropical Atlantic.

For the forecast W of 55W, a surface trough currently from 31N64W
through the Turks and Caicos will be overtaken later today by a
cold front that is now located from 31N65W to the Straits of
Florida. This front will stall from just E of Bermuda to just N of
Hispaniola by Wed morning, then gradually dissipate into late
week. A 1006 mb low pres center located offshore of Cape Hatteras
will move SW to between Bermuda and the SE U.S. coast by Wed then
drift W and inland over Georgia Fri. Fresh to strong N winds and
large N-NE seas associated with this system will impact areas W
of 70W and N of 28N through Thu before diminishing. High pressure
across the central Atlc will build W into the region behind the
low Thu through Sat.

$$
Flynn
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