[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 100556
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Tue May 10 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0500 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic tropical wave extends from 01S to 24N, with an axis
along 24W. It is moving westward at 15 kts. A surface reflection
was noted in a recent scatterometer pass. Shower activity around
the wave is limited at this time.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough exits the coast of Guinea-Bissau near 11N15W
and extends to 04N22W. The ITCZ continues west of the tropical
wave from 01N25W to 00N36W to 01N50W. Scattered moderate
convection is within 180 nm of the ITCZ from 26W to the coast of
Brazil.

GULF OF MEXICO...

The Gulf of Mexico is mainly under the influence of high
pressure, supporting moderate NE-E return flow in the NE Gulf
and mainly fresh E to SE winds in the central and western Gulf.
A recent scatterometer pass revealed fresh to strong winds
offshore the NW Yucatan Peninsula. Fresh to strong winds are
also noted over the NW Gulf in recent buoy observations, where
seas are 5 to 7 ft. Seas are 4 to 6 ft over the remainder of the
western and central Gulf, and 1 to 3 ft in the eastern Gulf.
Hazy conditions due to ongoing agricultural fires over Mexico
may still be prevalent over the W and SW Gulf.

For the forecast, high pressure across the eastern U.S. will
continue to build SSW across the basin through early Wed then
shift slowly W through Fri. This will produce moderate to fresh
easterly winds across much of the Gulf tonight through Wed
night. Strong winds will pulse over the eastern Bay of Campeche
Tue evening and Wed evening. Winds will weaken basin wide Thu
and Fri as the ridge shifts W.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Recent scatterometer data observed mainly moderate trade winds
over the eastern and central basin and gentle to moderate winds
over the NW basin including the windward passage. Locally fresh
winds were observed offshore NE Colombia and within the Gulf of
Honduras, where seas are up to 6 ft. Seas are mainly 3 to 5 ft
over the remainder of the basin. Numerous moderate to scattered
strong convection is mainly confined over Colombia, however,
some convection is noted just offshore western Colombia and
Panama.

For the forecast, the surface ridge will maintain moderate to
fresh trades across most of the basin into tonight. Low pressure
offshore of the Middle Atlantic states will drift SW and move to
midway between N Florida and Bermuda late Tue, then drift W and
eventually inland by Fri. High pres across the Atlc to the E of
this feature will increase trade winds to fresh to locally strong
across the basin E of 75W Wed through Fri.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front curves west-southwestward from a quasi-stationary
1003 mb low off the U.S. Mid-Atlantic coast, across 31N69W to
near Cape Canaveral, Florida. Moderate to fresh N-NE winds and
seas of 8 to 12 ft in N swell related to the low and front are
present near the boundary west of 72W from 31N to the Straits of
FL. A surface trough is ahead of the boundary extending from
31N66W to the SE Bahamas. Ongoing scattered showers and
thunderstorms are observed ahead of the trough axis from 23N to
27N from 62W to 71W. Locally fresh to strong winds related to
the convection are possible in this area. Otherwise, the region
is under the influence of a surface ridge extending from high
pressure centered near the Azores islands southwestward to the
Lesser Antilles allowing for moderate E flow east of 55W,
moderate SE flow between 65W and 55W, and moderate SW to W flow
from 72W to 65W.

For the forecast W of 55W, the weak surface trough currently
will be overtaken by Tue by a cold front that is now located
from 31N70W to near Daytona Beach, Florida. This front will
stall from just E of Bermuda to the Turks and Caicos Tue night,
then gradually dissipate into late week. The 1003 mb low
pressure center located offshore of Cape Hatteras will move SW
to between Bermuda and the SE U.S. coast Wed then drift W and
inland over northern Florida or Georgia Fri. Fresh to strong N
winds and large N-NE associated with this system will impact
areas W of 70W and N of 28N through Thu before diminishing.

$$
Mora
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