[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 082349
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Mon May 09 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2330 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern tropical wave is along 15W from 02N to 15N. It is
moving westward at 10 kt. The Hovmoller diagram satellite
imagery sequence for the past 5 days reveals that this wave has
a good track history. Latest satellite imagery shows and
extensive area of numerous moderate to isolated strong from 02N
to 10N between the coast of Africa and 23W. Tropical wave
guidance has it moving westward over the next 24-48 hours,
passing well to the south of the Cabo Verde Islands.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Sierra
Leone near 09N13W and continues southwestward to 03N22W, where
latest scatterometer data indicates that it transitions to the
ITCZ and continues to 01N30W, then along the Equator to 40W and
50W. Aside from convection associated to the tropical wave,
scattered moderate convection is seen within 120 nm north of the
ITCZ between 47W-50W and within 90 nm south of the ITCZ between
41W-45W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A weak stationary front extends from 29N87W northwestward to
to the Mississippi River Delta. There is no convection occurring
with this front as very stable conditions remain throughout the
basin. Light to gentle variable winds are north of the front,
while light to gentle winds are elsewhere east of 90W. Gentle to
moderate winds are west of 90W. Seas are generally in the 1-3 ft
range, except in the NW and west-central Gulf where seas are
slightly higher, in the 3-4 ft range as seen in buoy observations
and in a recent altimeter data pass over the western Gulf.

Visible satellite imagery depicts hazy skies over most of the
western Gulf areas.

For the forecast, the stationary front will dissipate this
evening as high pressure builds in from the north. The associated
gradient will bringing moderate to fresh easterly winds across
most of the Gulf from Mon night through Wed night. These winds
will pulse to strong during night time hours off the central
Florida coast at night Mon and Tue, and over the eastern Bay of
Campeche from Mon night thru Wed night. Smoke from agricultural
fires in Mexico will prolong hazy conditions across mainly the
west-central and southwestern Gulf through early this evening.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The pressure gradient between high pressure ridging over the
northern Caribbean and lower pressure over the Colombian Basin
is maintaining moderate trades across the majority of the basin.
Fresh east trades are in the south-central basin with fresh
southeast trades off the coast of Honduras and from 15N to 18N
between 80W-85W. Gentle trades are over the far southwestern
Caribbean, including the entrance to the Panama Canal. Seas are
generally in the 3-5 ft range, with 4-6 seas in the south-
central Caribbean. Lower seas of 2-4 ft are between 64W-68W as
well as over the north-central and northwestern Caribbean
areas.

Scattered to locally broken low-level clouds moving northwestward
with isolated showers are noted from just northeast of Puerto
Rico to the waters in the vicinity of the Leeward Islands.
A few showers and thunderstorms are over some of the interior
sections of central and western Cuba. Isolated showers are
possible over the interior of Hispaniola and over some interior
sections of Puerto Rico.

For the forecast, the high pressure ridging will maintain
moderate to fresh trades across the entire basin into Mon. A
robust surface trough moving across the Bahamas should allow
winds over the northwest part of the basin to become gentle to
moderate by Mon night, while moderate to fresh trades will
continue for the central and eastern basin into Fri.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An 1002 mb cut-off low pressure system offshore Cape Hatteras is
creating a disturbed weather pattern in the western Atlantic. A
cold front extends from the low south-southwestward to 30N75W and
west-northwest from there to inland southern Georgia. A surface
trough is analyzed from near 31N73W to the central Bahamas. The
low pressure system and associated front and trough are
underneath a large upper-level trough. Upper dynamics contributed
by this system, in addition to very moist southwest flow east of
the surface trough is helping to sustain a large area of
numerous and rather vigorous thunderstorms with frequent
lightning. This activity is within 120 nm of a line that
stretches from 31N65W to 27N68W to 23N74W. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms are south of 26N west of 72W to near 80W. Isolated
showers and thunderstorms are within 180 nm east of the trough
from 28N to 30N. Isolated showers are elsewhere west of 74W.

An ASCAT from this afternoon highlighted fresh to strong southwest
winds east of the surface trough to near 69W. Gentle to moderate
west to northwest winds are west of the surface trough, except
for moderate to fresh northeast winds north of 28N and west of
80W. Between 55W-75W, south to southwest moderate to fresh winds
are evident, with an area of fresh to strong southwest winds from
29N to 31N between 68W-71W. Seas are generally 4-6 ft with an
area of 6-8 ft seas north of 27N between 65W-73W. As the
aforementioned cut-off low lingers in the western Atlantic for
the next several days, this will result in the propagation of
northeast swell through the waters north of and northeast of the
Bahamas and west of 72W, including the waters between the NW
Bahamas and South Florida. The swell will

Mariners should exercise caution in the vicinity of the Gulf
Stream this week as the swell opposes the current, creating
choppy seas and hazardous marine conditions.

East of 55W, the area is under the broad anticyclonic flow
provided by the Azores high and a 1027 mb high that is north of
the area near 33N40W. Gentle to moderate easterly trades are
present over this area, except for moderate to fresh trades
confined to south of about 17N. A tighter pressure gradient in
the northeast Atlantic is supporting an area of fresh to strong
northeast winds near the Canary Islands and 6-8 ft seas from 26N-
31N between 18W-28W.

For the forecast W of 55W, the surface trough that extends from
31N73W to the central Bahamas will slowly drift eastward to over
the Central/and southeastern Bahamas through Mon. This should
allow the fresh to strong winds to shift north of 31N late
tonight. Afterward, the cold front associated to the cut-off low
offshore Cape Hatteras will push farther south and bring strong
north winds and rough seas off the Georgia and north Florida
coasts through early Thu morning.

$$
Aguirre
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