[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 071609
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Sat May 7 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1600 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Sierra
Leone near 08N13W and continues SW to 06N16W. The ITCZ extends
from 06N16W to 01N30W to 00N50W. Scattered moderate convection is
noted from 00N to 04N, E of 27W; from 00N to 00N to 04N, between
31W and 36W; and from 00N to 03N, west of 41W.


GULF OF MEXICO...

A weak cold front extends across the NE Gulf waters from north
central FL to the TX/LA border. A line of thunderstorms is
observed ahead of this boundary along a squall line in the
eastern Gulf. Moderate NW winds are observed behind the front with
3 to 5 ft seas. Gentle to moderate southerly flow and 2 to 4 ft
seas dominate the remainder of the basin.

For the forecast, the cold front will sustain moderate W winds
across the NE Gulf through this afternoon. The cold front should
be east of the Gulf by Mon, following a high building southward
from the southeast U.S. which will cause moderate to fresh
southerly winds over the W Gulf through midweek. Winds just north
of the Yucatan and in the eastern Bay of Campeche are expected to
pulse between fresh and strong during the night, from Mon night
through Wed night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A ridge extends from the Atlantic into the NE Caribbean. Mainly
gentle to moderate trades prevail across the basin, except light
and variable winds over the SW Caribbean. Seas are in the 3 to 5
ft range, except for 1 to 3 ft in the lee of Cuba.

For the forecast, the surface ridge will maintain moderate to
fresh trades across the entire basin through Mon. Then a weakening
cold front moving off southern Florida should allow winds over
the NW basin to become gentle to moderate by Mon evening, while
moderate to fresh trades will continue for the central and eastern
basin through Wed night. Higher trade-wind swell from the central
Atlantic should begin to enter the eastern basin near midweek
next week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends across the western Atlantic from 31N79W to
30N81W. A pre-frontal squall line is analyzed from 31N76W to
28N80W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is
occurring along the squall line. A recent scatterometer pass
found fresh to strong SW winds ahead of the cold front, with fresh
to strong westerlies behind. Seas in the area are 6 to 8 ft and
building. Conditions improve south and east of the front with
moderate or lighter winds south of 25N and east of 65W. In the
eastern Atlantic, fresh NE winds are noted near the Cabo Verde
Islands and N of the Canary Islands. Gentle to moderate winds and
4 to 6 ft seas dominate the remainder of the basin.

For the forecast W of 55W, the cold front will prolong fresh to
strong SW to W winds off the Florida coast, just north of the
Bahamas through this evening. The front will move eastward, from
31N73W to the NW Bahamas on Mon, causing fresh to locally strong
winds to shift to the west central Atlantic waters. A cut-off low
is going to intensify off the North Carolina coast Mon night
through Tue night, which should bring fresh to strong northerly
winds and rough seas off the Georgia/Florida coast.

$$
Flynn
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