[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 070959
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Sat May 7 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Sierra
Leone near 08N13W and continues SW to 03N18W. The ITCZ extends
from 03N18W to 00N30W to 00N50W. Scattered moderate convection is
noted from 00N to 04N, E of 33W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A weak ridge continues to dominate the Gulf waters. A cold front
extends along the northern Gulf coast from the Florida Panhandle
to SW Louisiana. A cluster of moderate convection is noted ahead
of this front from 26N to 29N E of 85W. Thunderstorms previously
along the Mexican coast have dissipated, although a weak surface
trough remains analyzed along the west coast of the Yucatan
Peninsula.

Moderate to fresh mainly W winds over over the NE Gulf of Mexico,
with seas of 3 to 6 ft. Elsewhere, a light to gentle anticyclonic
flow is noted with the exception of moderate N winds off the W
coast of the Yucatan peninsula. Seas are generally 2 to 4 ft.

For the forecast, weak high pressure will dominate, promoting
quiescent conditions through early next week. A cold front will
move through the far NE Gulf tonight, then spill south along the
west coast of Florida Sun, then be east of the area by Sun night.
Meanwhile, an overnight trough off Yucatan will support pulses of
fresh winds off the N and W coasts of Yucatan Mon night into Tue
night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A ridge extends from the Atlantic into the NE Caribbean. Mainly
gentle to moderate trades prevail across the basin, except light
and variable winds over the SW Caribbean, and locally fresh winds
in and near the Gulf of Honduras. Seas are in the 3 to 5 ft
range, except for 1 to 3 ft in the lee of Cuba. Convection that
had be in waters near the Greater Antilles has diminished
diurnally.

For the forecast, the Bermuda High will weaken today as it slides
eastward toward the central Atlantic, allowing winds to diminish
to generally moderate to locally fresh through the middle of next
week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A weak surface trough from 30N79W to central Florida is leading to
scattered moderate convection within 30 nm either side of its
axis. High pressure of 1021 mb located near 28N56W extends a
ridge across the Atlantic W of 50W. For areas E of the high,
moderate to fresh S winds are increasing, with strong SW winds N
of the aforementioned surface trough, ahead of a cold front just
inland over the SE U.S. A surface trough stretches from 22N48W
to 16N49W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 60 nm
either side of this trough axis, with moderate NE to E winds
located W of the trough to about 55W. Farther E, another trough
extends from a weak 1016 mb low pressure situated near 31N33W to
20N36W. Mainly gentle winds prevail on both sides of the trough
axis and no significant convection is associated with it. The
remainder of the Atlantic forecast waters is under the influence
of a ridge. Fresh NE winds are noted E of the Cabo Verde Islands
and N of the Canary Islands. Otherwise across the tropics mainly
moderate trades prevail with seas of 3 to 5 ft.

For the forecast W of 55W, the Bermuda High will weaken and
migrate eastward tonight. Fresh to strong S to SW winds N of the
Bahamas will prevail into tonight, ahead of a cold front that is
expected to move off the Florida coast tonight. The front will
push southeast Sun and Mon, reach from 30N70W to the SE Bahamas by
late Mon, and become stationary and dissipate on Tue. Fresh to
strong N winds behind the front are anticipated north of the
Bahamas Sun night through Tue night, and may be prolonged through
the middle of next week as low pressure forms N of the area.

$$
Konarik
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