[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 062330
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Sat Fri May 07 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Sierra
Leone near 07N12W to 02N15W, where latest scatterometer data
indicates that it transitions to the ITCZ and continues to the
Equator at 25W and to 01S32W to 01S40W and to the Equator at 47W.
Numerous moderate to strong conveciton is within 90 nm of the
ITCZ between 18W-21W. Scattered moderate convection is seen
within 210 nm south of the ITCZ between 22W-28W. Scattered
moderate convection is within 30 nm of the ITCZ between 39W-
43W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Relatively weak high pressure is over the Gulf. A cold front is
just inland the Louisiana and northeastern Texas coasts. Numerous
showers and thunderstorms are moving eastward over the far
northeastern Gulf. This activity is accompanied by frequent
lightning as noted in latest GOES-E satellite imagery. Some of
this activity may be on the strong side capable of producing
strong gusty winds. This activity is being enhanced by an upper-
level trough that is moving eastward as well over the same area.
Rather stable conditions persist across the rest of the basin.
Hazy skies due to agricultural fires over southern Mexico are
evident over some sections of the central and western Gulf.

Fresh southwest to west winds are over the northeastern Gulf
per latest and current buoy observations. Partial ASCAT data and
buoy observations show moderate south to southwest winds over
the southeastern Gulf, moderate northeast to east winds over the
central Bay of Campeche, gentle east to southeast winds over the
west-central Gulf and light to variable winds elsewhere. Seas
are in the 4-6 feet over the northeastern Gulf and north- central
Gulf and 2-4 ft elsewhere, except for slighter higher seas of
3-5 ft over the west-central Gulf.

For the forecast, the high pressure will gradually slide
southward maintaining generally quiet conditions over most of
the Gulf during the next couple of days. A weak cold front will
move southward across the eastern Gulf Sat night through Sun. It
will dissipate while exiting the basin Mon. Meanwhile, an
overnight trough off Yucatan will support pulses of fresh to
locally strong winds off the north and west coasts of Yucatan
Sun night through Tue.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface trough extends from eastern Cuba south-southwest to
near 17N77W. Broad cyclonic flow aloft is present to the north of
14N and east of 70W. Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms
are over some section of the interior of Cuba, Hispaniola and
over the interior of the western section of Puerto Rico. The
majority of this activity has develop due to afternoon heating
and local terrain affects.

The eastern segment of the eastern Pacific Ocean monsoon trough
protrudes eastward along 10N to inland northwestern Colombia
near 74W. With the broad cyclonic flow in place just to its
north as mentioned above, this is helping to further enhance
atmospheric moisture over the extreme southern and southwestern
Caribbean. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are
noted south of 13N and west of 71W. Similar activity is south of
15N east of about 60W.

Partial ASCAT data indicates fresh trades over the most of the
central and northwest Caribbean, and gentle to moderate trades
elsewhere. Seas are in the 4-6 ft range south of 15N west
of 68W-72W, except for higher seas of 5-7 ft west of 76W. Seas
are 3-5 ft elsewhere over the southern Caribbean. Slighter
lower seas of 2-4 ft are over the remainder of the sea.

For the forecast, the combination of the Bermuda High pressure
system interacting with lower pressure in Colombia and Venezuela
will maintain fresh to strong trades across most of the central
Caribbean. The Bermuda High will weaken on Sat as it shifts
eastward toward the central Atlantic, allowing for winds to
diminish into the middle of next week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough extends from near 30N74W, south-southwest to
eastern Cuba. A broad upper-level trough covers the area between
57W-70W. An upper-level appears to forming within the trough
near 25N63W. This same trough extends southward over the
Caribbean Sea. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
are present from 23N to 26N between 65W and the trough. A
surface trough stretches from a weak 1017 mb low near 29N36W,
northeastward to 32N33W and south-southwestward to 26N32W to
22N40W to 19N50W and to near Martinique. Broken to overcast
multilayered clouds, with scattered showers and possible isolated
thunderstorms are evident from 14N to 20N between 51W-61W.

A weak 1017 mb high is centered near 24N71W, while a 1020 mb
high is near 27N58W and a 1024 mb high is north of the area near
32N42W. High pressure is present over the remainder of the area.

Fresh north winds are along and within 120 nm of the coast of
Africa from 12N to 16N. Moderate to fresh northeast to east winds
are from 15N to 23N between 46W-62W and from 17N to 22N between
30W-46W. Fresh to strong winds are over the northwest part of the
area north of about 27N and west of 75W. These winds are in
advance of an upcoming cold front. Generally, gentle to moderate
east to southeast winds are elsewhere.

Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are north of 27N west
of 75W.

For the forecast, the surface trough that extends from 30N74W to
eastern Cuba will dissipate overnight tonight. The rest of the
area is dominated by the Bermuda High, which will weaken and
migrate eastward into Sat. A cold front is expected to move off
the Florida coast Sat night. The front will push southeast Sun
and Mon, reach from 30N70W to western Cuba by late Mon, and
become stationary and dissipate on Tue. Fresh to strong north
winds behind the front are anticipated north of the Bahamas Mon
into Tue night.

$$
Aguirre
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