[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 061756
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Thu May 05 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1720 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Sierra
Leone near 07N12W to 02N15W. The ITCZ continues from 02N15W, to
the Equator along 20W, to 01N30W, 01S35W, to 01S47W.
Precipitation: widely scattered to scattered strong is within 60
nm on the northern side of the monsoon trough, and within 150 nm
on the southern side of the monsoon trough from 04N to 07N; and
within 150 nm to the north of the ITCZ between 22W and 33W.
Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is to the south of
the line from 02N33W 10N53W 10N60W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A broad NE-to-SW oriented surface ridge spans the Gulf of
Mexico.

Fresh SE winds are within 125 nm to the west of the western
coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. Gentle winds are in the north
central Gulf waters. Moderate to fresh winds are in the
remainder of the area. The wave heights range from 4 feet to 6
feet from 90W westward. The wave heights range from 1 foot to 3
feet from 90W eastward.

Surface ridging across the N Gulf will gradually sink southward,
promoting generally quiescent conditions over most of the Gulf
of Mexico for the next couple of days. A weak cold front
will move southward across the E Gulf Sat night through Sun,
before stalling and dissipating over the Straits of Florida on
Mon. Meanwhile, an overnight trough off Yucatan will support
pulses of fresh to occasionally strong winds off the N and W
coasts of Yucatan through Fri, and again Sun and Mon.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper level trough, and a surface trough, have been along
74W/76W, from the Windward Passage to 25N in the Bahamas.
Precipitation: isolated moderate is in the Windward Passage.

The eastern end of the eastern Pacific Ocean monsoon trough is
along 10N from 75W at the coast of Colombia westward.
Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is from 14N
southward from 73W westward.

Other rainshowers are possible, during the rest of the
afternoon, in areas of low level moisture, with afternoon
heating.

Mostly fresh to some strong winds are in the Caribbean Sea. The
wave heights that range from 4 feet to 6 feet.

The Bermuda High interacting with lower pressure in Colombia and
Venezuela will maintain fresh to strong trades across most of
the central Caribbean through tonight. Nightly pulsing fresh to
strong trades will also affect the waters off central Honduras
into Fri night. The Bermuda High will weaken Sat as it slides
eastward toward the central Atlantic, allowing winds to diminish
through Mon.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper level trough, and a surface trough, have been along
74W/76W, from the Windward Passage to 25N in the Bahamas.
Precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered clouds, and
widely scattered moderate to isolated strong, cover the Atlantic
Ocean from 20N northward between 64W and 80W.
A second surface trough is along 27N74W 31N78W.

A 1022 mb high pressure center is about 120 nm to the
south-southwest of Bermuda. Surface anticyclonic wind flow
covers the Atlantic Ocean to the north and northwest, and away
from the 31N38W-17N60W surface trough.

A surface trough is along 31N38W, to a 22N49W 1016 mb low
pressure center, to 17N60W. Precipitation:
scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 90 nm to the
west of the trough, and within 120 nm to the east of the trough,
from 25N northward. A surface ridge passes through 31N24W to
20N30W. Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow is in the Atlantic
Ocean from 20N northward to the east of the 31N38W-17N60W
surface trough.

The wave heights range from 4 feet to 6 feet from 60W eastward.
The wave heights range from 2 feet to 5 feet from 60W westward.
Fresh winds are within 200 nm on either side of the
31N38W-17N60W surface trough between 36W and 53W; within 200 nm
of the coast of Africa from 24N northward; and within 100 nm on
either side of the line 04N30W 06N43W 09N55W. Moderate wind
speeds, or slower, cover the remainder of the Atlantic Ocean.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms persist northeast of the
Bahamas, near a couple surface troughs in the area. The troughs
are forecast to dissipate by Fri night. The rest of the area is
dominated by the Bermuda High, which will weaken and migrate
eastward Fri into Sat. Fresh to locally strong S to SW winds
will develop north of the Bahamas starting Fri night, ahead of a
cold front that is expected to move off the Florida coast Sun
morning. The front will push southeast Sun and Mon, and
reach from 30N70W to the Straits of Florida by late Mon.

$$
mt/cl
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net