[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 042223
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Thu May 5 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean through the coast
of Guinea near 10N13W to 08N15W. The ITCZ continues from 08N15W
to 01N34W to the coast of northern Brazil near 01N50W. Scattered
moderate and isolated strong convection is within 90 nm north of
the ITCZ between 18W and 39W, and from 03N to 10N between 40W and
53W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

The subtropical ridge south of Bermuda extends across the
southeastern United States. Light to gentle E-SE winds and seas of
3 ft or less are noted east of 90W, with moderate winds and seas
of 3 to 5 ft west of 90W, except locally fresh in the Texas
coastal waters. Surface-based observations over the western Gulf
and over in Mexico continue to report hazy conditions for much of
the western Gulf due to ongoing agricultural fires in portions of Mexico.

For the forecast, the subtropical ridge persists to the south of
Bermuda, extending into the Gulf of Mexico. Moderate to fresh E-SE
winds will prevail across most of the Gulf waters through Thu.
Fresh to strong winds will pulse in the offshore waters north and
west of the Yucatan Peninsula Thu night. The ridge will migrate
eastward by Fri, as a weak cold front approaches the northern Gulf
coast Fri night into Sat. The front is expected to move along the
eastern Gulf coast through the weekend. Moderate to fresh
easterly winds are expected ahead of the front in the NE Gulf on
Sat with gentle to moderate E-NE winds behind it. Moderate to
fresh southeasterly winds are expected during the weekend in the
western Gulf.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Fairly tranquil weather conditions are prevalent across the
Caribbean Sea, except for some scattered convection offshore
Panama due to the eastern Pacific monsoon trough. Similar
convection is inland across the remainder of Central America, as
well as over portions of the Greater Antilles aided by afternoon
daytime heating.

The subtropical ridge north of the basin combined with lower
pressure over northern Colombia is supporting fresh to strong
winds over the central Caribbean, strongest offshore Colombia as
well as in the Gulf of Venezuela through the A-B-C Islands, with
resultant 6 to 10 ft seas. Moderate to fresh trades and 4 to 7 ft
seas are noted elsewhere.

For the forecast, the subtropical ridge north of the basin will
maintain fresh to strong winds across most of the central
Caribbean through Fri. Pulsing nightly fresh to strong trades will
also affect the waters just north of the Gulf of Honduras through
Fri night. The high pressure will weaken late this week into the
weekend as it slides eastward toward the central Atlantic,
allowing winds to diminish in the Caribbean by the weekend into
early next week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough located between the Bahamas and Florida, along
with divergence aloft, is supporting numerous showers and
scattered thunderstorms with frequent and dangerous lightning
from the Central Bahamas to 31N between 72W and 76W. Looking
east, high pressure is centered just south of Bermuda near
29.5N65W. Moderate to fresh NE winds are noted from 20N to 27N
between 55W and 60W due to a locally tight pressure gradient with
a surface trough located just east of 55W. Resultant seas are 5 to
7 ft across this area. Gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds
prevail elsewhere west of 55W, along with 3 to 5 ft seas outside
the Bahamas, locally to 6 ft south of 22N between 70W and 75W.

Farther east, a surface trough stretches from 31N42W to 1015 mb
low pressure near 27.5N45W to 21N54W. Scattered showers are
possible within 300 nm of the low and trough. Fresh to strong N-NE
winds are noted from 26N to 30N within 180 nm west of the trough,
with moderate to fresh NE winds elsewhere within 120-180 nm west of
the trough, and seas of 5 to 7 ft. The remainder of the basin is
dominated by the Azores high, resulting in quite quiet weather
conditions and mainly gentle to moderate NE-E trade winds, and 5
to 7 ft seas in mainly mixed northerly swell. An exception is
from 20N to 20N between the coast of Africa through the Cabo Verde
Islands to 20W where moderate to fresh, locally strong, N-NE
winds and 5 to 8 ft seas prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, the surface trough near the NW
Bahamas is forecast to meander over the next few days, enhancing
some storm activity near it. The rest of the area will continue to
be dominated by high pressure south of Bermuda through Thu. Fresh
to locally strong trades offshore northern Hispaniola will pulse
nightly through early Thu. The high pressure will weaken and
migrate eastward by Fri and into Sat. Fresh to locally strong
southerly winds will develop off the NE Florida coast by Fri
night. A cold front is expected to move off the Florida coast by
Sat and push southeast through the remainder of the weekend into
early next week.

$$
Lewitsky
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