[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 041035
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Wed May 4 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1030 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough is confined to the African continent. The
ITCZ extends from 06N17W to 01N32W to 01N49W. Scattered moderate
convection is observed south of 06N and between 35W and NE South
America.

GULF OF MEXICO...

The subtropical ridge south of Bermuda extends into the Gulf of
Mexico, supporting moderate to fresh E-SE winds across the central
and western Gulf. Seas are 3-5 ft in the area described. Elsewhere,
moderate or weaker winds and seas of 1-3 ft are noted. Surface-based
observations and reports from offshore platforms show visibility
is limited to 3 to 5 miles over much of the western Gulf due to
fog and haze.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh anticyclonic flow will
prevail across most of the Gulf waters through Thu. Fresh to
strong winds will pulse nightly in the offshore waters north and
west of the Yucatan Peninsula through Thu night. The ridge will
migrate eastward late this week into the weekend ahead of an
approaching cold front, allowing winds to diminish. High pressure
will rebuild over the basin by the end of the weekend.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Fairly tranquil weather conditions are prevalent across the
Caribbean Sea. The pressure gradient associated with the high
pressure south of Bermuda and lower pressures in northern South
America result in fresh to strong trades across much of the
central Caribbean. Seas are 7-10 ft in the south- central
Caribbean and 4-7 ft in the north-central Caribbean. Elsewhere,
moderate to fresh trades prevail, except moderate or weaker
between the Cayman Islands and western Cuba, and seas of 4-7 ft.

For the forecast, the subtropical ridge positioned to the south of
Bermuda support fresh to strong winds across most of the central
Caribbean through Fri. Pulsing nightly fresh to locally strong
trades will also affect the waters just north of the Gulf of
Honduras. The high pressure will weaken late this week into the
weekend as it slides eastward toward the central Atlantic,
allowing winds to diminish in the Caribbean.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A weak surface trough is positioned north of the NW Bahamas and
along with divergence aloft, supports scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms north of 25N and W of 75W. The subtropical
ridge near 29N63W dominates the rest of the western Atlantic,
maintaining fairly tranquil weather conditions. Fresh to locally
strong trades are noted offshore northern Hispaniola, while the
rest of the region W of 60W observes moderate to fresh
anticyclonic winds. W of 60W, seas are 3-6 ft.

Farther east, a surface trough extends from 31N44W to 23N53W and
supports scattered showers to the east of the trough axis, mainly
N of 26N and W of 44W. Seas in this region are 4-7 ft. The rest of
the central and eastern Atlantic are under the dominion of the
Azores high, resulting in quiet weather conditions. Moderate to
fresh trades are present S of 15N and between 35W and the Lesser
Antilles, along with seas of 6-8 ft. Fresh to locally strong N-NE
winds are occurring N of 18N and E of 25W, and the seas in this
area are 5-9 ft. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and seas of
4-7 ft prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, the surface trough off NE Florida
is forecast to meander over the next few days, enhancing some
storm activity near it. The rest of the area is dominated by the
high pressure system south of Bermuda. Fresh to locally strong
trades offshore northern Hispaniola will pulse nightly through
early Thu. The high pressure will weaken and migrate eastward late
this week and weekend as a cold front exits the southeastern
United States.

$$
Delgado
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