[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 030328
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Tue May 3 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0300 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of
Guinea-Bissau near 12N16W to 06N20W. The ITCZ continues from
06N20W to 01S30W to 00N42W to 02S45W. Scattered moderate convection
is noted from 02S to 04N between 37W and 42W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge east to west across the northern Gulf coast.
Farther south, the nocturnal trough is forming along the west
coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. This pattern is supporting light
and variable winds and seas 2 ft or less over the northeast Gulf.
Fresh to strong E winds are off the north coast of the Yucatan
Peninsula with 3 to 5 ft, and E to SE winds elsewhere with 4 to 6
ft. A few areas of haze and smoke may be in place across the far
southwest Gulf.

For the forecast, the ridge will continue to support a moderate to fresh anticyclonic
flow across the Gulf waters through Thu. Pulsing fresh to strong
winds are likely in the offshore waters north and west of the
Yucatan Peninsula at night through Thu.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A weakening surface trough extends from the southern Bahamas
through the Windward Passage to east of Jamaica. A scatterometer
pass from 02 UTC showed fresh to strong E trades winds across the
central Caribbean, where seas are 6 to 8 ft. Moderate E winds and
3 to 5 ft are noted elsewhere. A few showers and thunderstorms are
evident between Jamaica and Grand Cayman.

For the forecast, high pressure north of the area will sustain
fresh to strong winds across most of the eastern and central
Caribbean, including the Gulf of Venezuela, through most of the
week. Fresh to locally strong trades will also affect the Gulf of
Honduras, pulsing nightly Tue through late this week. A surface
trough extends across the SE Bahamas, eastern Cuba and into the
central Caribbean and it is forecast to meander in the area over
the next couple of days. The trough will continue to support some
shower and thunderstorm activity, mainly across the Bahamas.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough reaches from 25N70W across the southern Bahamas to
eastern Cuba and the Windward Passage. A surface ridge dominates
north of 27N, anchored by a 1025 mb high pressure is centered near
30N63W. A second trough reaches from 30N45W to 20N60W.
Scatterometer and buoy data show moderate to fresh winds across
the northern Bahamas ahead of the first trough with generally
moderate winds elsewhere west of 55W. Seas are 3 to 5 ft north of
27N and 5 to 7 ft south of 27N west of 55W. Farther east, 1032 mb
high pressure is centered near the Azores, maintaining fresh
trade winds and 5 to 8 ft south of 20N, gentle to moderate winds
north of 20N between 35W and 55W with 3 to 5 ft, and moderate to
fresh NE winds and 5 to 8 ft north of 20N and east of 35W.

For the forecast west of 55W, the surface trough through the
southern Bahamas is forecast to meander in the area over the next
couple of days. The trough will continue to support some shower
and thunderstorm activity, mainly across the Bahamas. High
pressure positioned near Bermuda will dominate the remainder of
the forecast region through Thu. This system will move eastward
toward the end of the work week as a cold front exits the eastern
of United States. For the waters between 35W and 55W, low pressure
may form near 27N45W through mid week, supporting fresh to strong
winds within 90 nm on the northwest side of the low pressure.

$$
Christensen
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