[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 312238
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Fri Apr 1 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2200 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Atlantic Gale Warning: Strong to near gale force S winds with
frequent gusts to gale force will continue off NE Florida, N of
27N and W of 77W through tonight, ahead of a cold front forecast
to enter the western Atlantic early Fri morning. Wave heights with
these winds are in the 9 to 11 ft range.

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: Frequent wind gusts to 35 kt are
occurring N of 27N and E of 85W to the Florida W coast, mainly
within a squall line, oriented from 29N82.5W to 27N85.5W at 2200
UTC. The gale warning for frequent gusts to gale force should end
for the NE Gulf this evening. However, the squall line may persist
in the area through early Fri morning. Seas of 8-10 ft in the
area will subside tonight.

For more information on both warnings, please see the latest NWS
High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at
website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more
details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough remains inland over Africa. The ITCZ curves from
03N20W to 01.5S33W to 01N45W. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is seen within 180 nm of the ITCZ.

GULF OF MEXICO...

As of 31/2100 UTC, a cold front curves southwestward from Destin,
Florida to 24N92W. The front continues as a warm front to a 1005
mb low pressure in the SW Gulf near 22N94.5W. A stationary front
curves W and N from the low to 22N97W, and inland into NE Mexico
near 25N98W. A squall line extends from Crystal River Florida to
27N85.5W at 31/2200 UTC. The squall line is 30 to 60 nm in width.
Frequent lightning and frequent gusts to gale force are occurring
within this line of thunderstorms. Precipitation in the Gulf is
confined to areas north of 26.5N and east of 86W, mostly
associated with the squall line. Refer to the Special Features
section for more information.

Outside of the squall line, sustained winds in the eastern Gulf
are S-SW fresh to locally strong, east of 88W. Gentle to moderate
winds prevail over the remainder of the Gulf. Seas are 6-10 ft
over the eastern Gulf, 5-7 ft in the NW Gulf and 3-5 ft in the SW
Gulf. Smoke produced by agricultural fires in Mexico might be
reducing visibilities over portions of the southern and western
Gulf of Mexico. If mariners encounter reduced visibilities due to
smoke, they are encouraged to report the observation to the
National Weather Service by calling 305-229-4425.

For the forecast, intense thunderstorms with frequent and
dangerous lightning will accompany the squall line over the far
NE waters through this evening and the overnight hours. Strong
southerly flow with frequent gusts to gale force in the NE Gulf
will shift eastward ahead of the squall line and diminish around
sunset Thu. The front will reach from the Florida Big Bend to near
Tuxpan, Mexico by later this evening, becoming stationary by
early Fri. The front will lift north as a warm front through Fri
night, then push offshore again for the remainder of the weekend
before washing out along 26N Sun night. Southerly return flow will
dominate for the start of next week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Mid to upper-level anticyclonic flow prevails across the western
half of the Caribbean Sea, leading to subsidence and dry
conditions. Mid to upper-level troughing prevails across the
eastern Caribbean, but conditions are still relatively dry there.
Only a few trade wind showers prevail over the eastern basin,
mostly east of 67W.

The combination of a 1025 mb high pressure centered near Bermuda
and a 1008 mb Colombia low is causing fresh to locally strong
trade winds across most of the Caribbean Sea. Strong winds are
likely occurring in the Gulf of Honduras and over portions of the
central Caribbean, including offshore of Colombia, the Gulf of
Venezuela, and near Jamaica and Haiti. Seas are 6-8 ft across the
central Caribbean and Gulf of Honduras. Seas of 4-6 ft prevail
elsewhere.

For the forecast, high pressure north of the area will continue
to sustain fresh to strong winds in the south-central Caribbean
near the coast of Colombia, south of the Dominican Republic, and
in the Gulf of Honduras, except diminishing south of Hispaniola
Fri night. Moderate to fresh winds will prevail elsewhere.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the Special Features section for information on a Gale
Warning to the east of northern Florida. Scattered showers and
tstorms are now starting to spread over this same area, north of
28N and west of 76W.

A 1025 mb high pressure centered near Bermuda spreads ridging
across much of the western Atlantic. Winds are moderate or weaker
north of 26N between 52W-68W. Fresh southerlies prevail between
68W-76W, north of 25N. Fresh to locally strong trades are
occurring farther south, near the Greater Antilles

A cold front curves southwestward from the central Atlantic across
31N42W to 23N54W, then continues westward as a shear line to near
the SE Bahamas. Strong NW winds are within 240 nm west of the
cold front, north of 28N between 42W-47W. Large NW swell is also
following in the wake of this cold front, especially north of 28N,
where seas are likely 11-14 ft between 44W-55W. A surface trough
NE of the French Guinea-Brazil border is triggering scattered
moderate convection from 03N to 07N between 44W and the French
Guinea-Brazil coastline. Mainly moderate to fresh trades prevail
across the tropical Atlantic with 6-8 ft seas. A surface ridge
with light to gentle anticyclonic winds extends from a 1022 mb
high near 36N22W to 31N24W to 25N38W to 23N48W. Along the coasts
of Morocco and Western Sahara, fresh to locally strong N to NE
winds prevail.

For the forecast west of 65W, fresh to strong easterly winds
south of 23N and west of 70W will gradually diminish through early
Fri. Strong southerly winds, with frequent gusts to gale force
will continue off northeastern Florida through tonight ahead of a
cold front that will move across the waters offshore northeastern
Florida early on Fri, then across the northern waters through Sat.
The front will weaken significantly Sat, then become stationary
along 31N to the east of 75W by early Sun. Scattered strong to
severe thunderstorms are expected to precede the front tonight
into Fri. Another cold front may move across the basin late in
the weekend into early next week.

For the forecast east of 65W, the cold front extending from 31N42W
to 23N54W will shift eastward, reaching from 31N28W to 24N35W to
21N50W by Fri evening. Strong winds will continue with this front,
north of 27N, through early Fri before gradually diminishing. Seas
in excess of 10 ft will continue to follow in the wake of this
front north of 25N through Fri evening. Over the weekend, low
pressure north of the area should move south of 31N, spreading
strong to near gale force winds over the waters east of 35W and
north of 26N. Seas will increase in this area late Sat through
Sun, before gradually subsiding by late Mon.

$$
Hagen
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