[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 292311
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Tue Mar 29 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2255 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: Pressure gradient continues to
increase between deepening pressure over Texas and a high near
Florida. This will allow strong to near-gale force southerly
winds with frequent gusts to gale force to develop across the W
Gulf this evening. These conditions are expected to spread
eastward across most of the Gulf on Wed. Seas at the W Gulf will
reach 8 to 10 ft this evening, then 10 to 14 ft by Wed morning
before shifting into the central Gulf Wed afternoon. Please, see
the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough continues confined primarily to the African
continent. The ITCZ extends from near 03N15W to 01S30W to 01S46W.
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from
05S to 03N between 14W and the NW Brazilian coast.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Please read the Special Feature section above on the Gale Warning

A 1022 mb high pressure system is positioned near Spring Hill,
Florida, near 28N83W. Fairly tranquil weather conditions prevail
across the basin with only a few cirrus clouds visible on
satellite imagery. The pressure gradient as the result of the
subtropical ridge and intensifying storm over the central US is
causing fresh to strong southerly winds over most of the western Gulf
of Mexico. Moderate to occasionally fresh E-SE winds are found in
the eastern Gulf and Bay of Campeche. Seas of 5-8 ft are present W
of 90W, with the highest seas occurring in the offshore Texas
waters. Seas of 2-5 ft prevail S of 25N and E of 90W, and 1-2 ft
elsewhere. Areas of smoke could be reducing visibilities within
90 nm of the coast of Mexico between Veracruz and the Mouth of the
Rio Grande River, due to agricultural fires in Mexico.

For the forecast, fresh to strong southerly flow and rough seas
will develop across the basin tonight. Frequent gusts to gale
force are expected north of 22N and west of 87W, with building
seas of up to 12 to 14 ft across the central and north-central
Gulf on Wed and Wed evening. These hazardous marine conditions
will be the result of a strong pressure gradient between high
pressure over the western Atlantic and a deepening low pressure
over Texas and northern Mexico. A cold front will approach the
coast of Texas by Wed evening, and extend from the western Florida
Panhandle to near Veracruz, Mexico by Thu evening. The front is
forecast to stall and gradually dissipate into the upcoming
weekend.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted within 60 nm of
the coasts of Panama and Colombia due to diurnal heating and
abundant moisture in the region. The rest of the Caribbean Sea is
quiet. A scatterometer satellite pass earlier today showed fresh
to strong trades across the central and western Caribbean, mainly
W of 70W. The strongest winds found between the Cayman Islands and
the Isle of Youth, Cuba, and in the offshore waters of NW
Colombia. Seas of 6-9 ft are present in the south-central
Caribbean, with the highest wave heights occurring offshore NW
Colombia. Seas of 5-8 ft are found in the north-central and
western Caribbean. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and seas of
3-5 ft prevail.

For the forecast, high pressure north of the area will promote
fresh to strong winds in the south-central Caribbean near the
coast of Colombia, across the Windward Passage to south of
Jamaica, south of the Dominican Republic, in the lee of Cuba, and
in the Gulf of Honduras through the week, diminishing in the Lee
of Cuba and across the Windward passage by late Wed night.
Moderate to fresh winds will prevail elsewhere. Moderate to fresh
trade winds along with larger trade-wind swell will persist east
of the Lesser Antilles through Fri. Winds will diminish somewhat
across the basin for the start of the upcoming weekend as the high
pressure weakens.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front extends from 31N52W to Hispaniola and a few
showers are noted ahead of the frontal boundary. A secondary,
dissipating cold front is present from 31N60W to 27N69W, where it
transitions into a dissipating stationary front to 27N75W. Winds
behind the primary front to Florida are moderate to fresh with the
strongest winds occurring S of 24N. Fresh S winds are also seen
ahead of the front, W of 52W and N of 27W. Seas behind the front
are 5-10 ft, with seas greater than 8 ft occurring N of 29N and
between 57W and 71W. Elsewhere, a 1034 mb high pressure system
over the central Atlantic and north of our area, dominates the
rest of the tropical Atlantic, permitting fairly tranquil weather
conditions. Moderate to fresh NE trades and seas of 6-8 ft are
evident from Equator to 25N and E of 55W. Seas of 6-9 ft in
northerly swell prevail N of 10N between the African coast and
36W. Gentle to moderate winds and seas at 4 to 6 ft are found
elsewhere.

For the forecast, the aforementioned stationary front will
continue to support scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
as well as some gusty winds over Hispaniola and the adjacent
waters likely through Wed night. A weakening front from 28N65W to
just north of the NW Bahamas will continue to weaken as it quickly
pushes east of the area tonight. Fresh to strong easterly winds
are forecast across the waters south of 23N-24N tonight. Winds
will increase to fresh to strong speeds east of the Florida
Peninsula by late Wed through Thu night ahead of the next cold
front forecast to enter the western Atlantic on Fri. The front
will not move much south of 30N while weakening Sat and Sat night.

$$
DELGADO
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