[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 282244
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Mon Mar 28 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2244 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough remains inland over the African continent. The
ITCZ extends from 04N11W to 00N21W to 02S35W and to the coast of
Brazil near 02S44W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is observed within 120 nm of the ITCZ W of 17W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1023 mb high pressure system located over the eastern Gulf of
Mexico dominates the entire basin, providing a fairly stable
airmass to suppress any shower activity. Moderate to fresh E-SW
winds are present in the southern and western Gulf, while gentle
to moderate anticyclonic winds prevail elsewhere. Seas of 3-5 ft
are found W of 90W and S of 25N, while 1-2 ft are prevalent in the
rest of the gulf.

For the forecast, high pressure centered over the eastern Gulf will
support gentle to moderate winds over the eastern Gulf, and
moderate to fresh return flow over the western Gulf through
tonight, except fresh to strong north-northwest of the Yucatan
Peninsula. Southerly winds over the western Gulf are expected to
gradually increase to fresh to strong speeds Tue through Wed.
These winds along with rough seas will spread to the central and
eastern Gulf on Wed ahead of the next cold front forecast to enter
the NW Gulf by late Wed. The front is forecast to weaken and slow
along the central Gulf through the end of the week. Return flow
prevails for the start of the weekend with a weak cold front
possible through the remainder of the weekend.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The final stage of a cold front, a shear line, extends from the
Tiburon peninsula of Haiti to the Bay Islands of Honduras and
southern Belize. Cloudiness and a few isolated showers are
occurring in the Gulf of Honduras. Isolated showers and
thunderstorms are also present within 60 nm of the coasts of NW
Colombia and Panama due to diurnal storm activity that formed in
the afternoon hours. The rest of the basin is fairly quiet. A
scatterometer satellite pass from a few hours ago depicted fresh
to strong NE winds occurring in the central and western Caribbean
Sea, with the strongest winds occurring offshore NW Colombia and
the Windward Passage, S to 16N and E of Jamaica. Seas of 4-8 ft
are noted in the central and western Caribbean, with the highest
seas affecting the offshore waters of NW Colombia. Moderate or
weaker winds and 2-5 ft seas are found elsewhere in the basin.

For the forecast, a shear-line from Haiti to south of Jamaica to
the Gulf of Honduras will keep lingering showers over the NW
Caribbean. High pressure north of the area will promote fresh to
strong winds in the south-central Caribbean near the coast of
Colombia, across the Windward Passage, south of the Dominican
Republic, in the lee of Cuba, and in the Gulf of Honduras through
the week, diminishing in the Lee of Cuba and across the Windward
passage Wed night. Moderate to fresh winds will prevail elsewhere.
Moderate to fresh trade winds along with larger trade- wind swell
will persist east of the Lesser Antilles through the Fri. Winds
will diminish somewhat across the basin for the start of the
upcoming weekend as the high pressure weakens.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 31N55W southwestward to Hispaniola. A
few showers are seen near the frontal boundary. Fresh to
occasionally strong S-SW winds are found ahead of the cold front, N
of 26N and W of 47W. Seas in the area described range between 5
and 8 ft. Moderate to locally fresh winds prevail behind the
frontal boundary to offshore Florida, along with seas of 5-8 ft.

A 1026 mb high pressure system located over the central Atlantic
dominates the rest of the basin, permitting fairly tranquil
weather conditions. Moderate to occasionally fresh trades S of 20N
and between Africa and the Lesser Antilles. Seas in this region
are 6-9 ft. A weakening low pressure system near 29N17W, just
north of the Canary Islands, is producing disorganized convection
well northeast of the center and north of our area. Fresh to
strong cyclonic winds are noted N of 26N and E of 29W. This system
is generating a large region of NW swell with wave heights of
8-12 ft E of 39W and N of 20N. Moderate or weaker winds and seas
of 5-8 ft prevail elsewhere in the tropical Atlantic.

For the forecast, the aforementioned front will bring prolonged
showers across Hispaniola and the adjacent waters while it
transitions to a shear-line by mid-week. High pressure in the wake
of the front will bring fresh to strong easterly winds across the
waters south- southwest of the Bahamas beginning Tue. Winds will
also increase to fresh to strong speeds east of the Florida
Peninsula by late Wed through Thu night ahead of the next cold
front forecast to enter the western Atlantic on Fri. The front
will not move much south of 30N while weakening Sat and Sat night.


$$
DELGADO
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