[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 280001
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Mon Mar 28 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough and the ITCZ are broken up by a surface trough,
that extends from 09N20W to 04N19W and to the Equator near 22W.
The momonsoon trough remains inland in Africa. The ITCZ extends
from 00N25W to 01S31W and to 01S40W. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is from 01N to 07N between 21W-25W,
and within 120 nm north of the ITCZ between 35W-40W. Scattered
moderate convection is within 120 nm south of the ITCZ between
25W-28W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

High pressure anchored by a 1021 mb high near 26N86W controls
the wind regime throughout with its anticyclonic wind flow.
No convection is occurring at the present time as conditions
remain very stable under dry sinking air aloft. Only a few
patches of high clouds streaming eastward are seen from 25N to
28N west of 87W and over the southern Bay of Campeche. Small low
clouds moving northward are between 90W-96W.

Moderate southeast to south winds are over the basin, except
for east to southeast moderate winds in the southwest Gulf,
gentle southwest winds in the NE Gulf and fresh northeast to
east winds in the eastern Gulf south of 25N. Wave heights are
in the 2-4 ft range, except for 3-5 ft in the eastern Gulf
south of 25N and 4-6 ft in the eastern Bay of Campeche.

For the forecast, the 1021 mb high center near 26N86W will
support moderate to fresh return flow across the western
Gulf through Mon afternoon. Winds near the high across the
eastern Gulf will be light to gentle thru Tue afternoon. Starting
Mon evening, southerly winds over the western Gulf should
gradually increase to between strong and near-gale force ahead of
a cold front approaching the Texas coast. These winds along with
rough seas are going to spread to the central and eastern Gulf
on Wed. Once the front has made its way across the Gulf toward
the weekend, conditions should improve from west to east.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A cold front extends from the southeastern Bahamas to northwest
Haiti and to Jamaica, where it begins to weaken to the north-
central Gulf of Honduras. Latest ASCAT data passes show mainly
fresh northeast winds north of the front. Wave heights with these
winds are in the 4-6 ft range. Isolated to scattered showers are
possible along the front.

Northeast to east fresh to strong winds, with wave heights of 5-7
ft are within 90 nm of the coast of Colombia, while fresh east
to southeast winds are south of 14N between 65W-69W, with wave
heights of 4-6 ft. Gentle to moderate trade winds are elsewhere
across the sea. Wave heights elsewhere are in the range of 4-6
ft in the central sections and near the Windward Passage, and 3-5
ft in the northeast part of the sea.

For the forecast, the aforementioned cold front will become
stationary tonight. Isolated to scattered showers will continue
in the northwestern Caribbean, including Jamaica and Haiti
tonight. High pressure over the eastern Gulf of Mexico and
central Atlantic will promote fresh to strong trades in the
western and central sections through at least mid- week. This
area includes N of Colombia, the lee of Cuba, the Windward
Passage and the Gulf of Honduras. Trade winds over the eastern
section will become moderate to fresh by Tue morning. Fresh trade
winds along with larger trade-wind swell will persist for the
Atlantic waters east of the Lesser Antilles through the Fri.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from near 31N60W to 24N68W, continues
southwestward to northwest Haiti and into the northwestern
Caribbean Sea where it is weakening. Scattered moderate
convection quickly lifting east-northeast is within 180 nm east
of the front north of 29N. Gentle to moderate southerly winds are
east of the front to near 58W, except for stronger fresh
southwest winds north of 25N and east to near 60W. Wave heights
are in the 8-11 feet north of 28N and west 70W. Wave heights
elsewhere west of 60W are in the 4-6 ft range.

A eastern Atlantic cold front associated to a 997 mb gale center
near 32N24W extends from 31N14W to 24N16W to 19N22W to 16N30W and
to near 15N40W. Near gale-force to gale-force winds are north of
29N between 24W-30W and between 120 to 270 nm southwest of the
997 mb gale center. Fresh to strong northwest winds are present
from 23N to 29N between 20W-31W. Fresh southerly winds are north
of 25N and east of 20W. Moderate to fresh northerly winds are
north of 25N between 30W-40W. Mainly northeast winds are south
of 15N between 30W-60W.

Areas of rain, with embedded scattered to numerous showers are
within 120 nm southeast of the front from 16W-24W. Recent
altimeter data passes indicates wave heights of 8-15 ft north of
the front and east of about 30W. The highest of these wave
heights are near 29N21W. Wave heights elsewhere east of 60W are
in the range of 6-8 ft.

A 1020 mb high pressure center is located near 30N45W. Its
associated anticyclonic wind flow covers the central Atlantic
north of 14N and between 35W-61W. The anticyclonic wind
flow consist of mainly gentle to moderate winds, except
for fresh winds south of about 19N.

For the forecast W of 65W, the weaker cold front that earlier
extended from west of Bermuda to 31N73W and to central Florida is
beginning to merge with a primary cold front from 31N59W to the
Windward Passage and NW Haiti. These features will sustain fresh
to strong winds for the offshore waters east of northern and
central Florida, and over the west-central Atlantic waters
through Mon morning. By Mon afternoon, a high pressure building
eastward from Florida should bring improving conditions.
Southeast return flow across the central and SE Bahamas will
become fresh to strong by Tue evening. On Wed afternoon, a strong
cold front exiting the northern Florida and Georgia coast should
sustain these winds near the Bahamas, and spread them northward
to near the east Florida coast. Winds might peak at near-gale
force Thu afternoon and evening. Once the front has pull farther
east into the west-central Atlantic on Fri, conditions will
improve.

$$
Aguirre
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