[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 271802
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Sun Mar 27 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1730 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough and the ITCZ are broken up by a surface trough,
that is along 08N20W 04N19W 02N20W, to the Equator along 22W.
Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is
from 01S to 04N between 17W and 29W, and from 04N to 13N between
16W and 22W. The monsoon trough remains inland in Africa. The ITCZ
is along 01S/the Equator between 24W and 39W. Precipitation: widely
scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 05N southward
between 29W and 40W. Numerous moderate to widely scattered/
scattered strong is in the coastal plains of Brazil from 02N to
04S between 44W and 52W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A dissipating cold front is in the Atlantic Ocean, passing through
28N80W, into Florida near 28N82W, into SW coastal Alabama. No
significant deep convective precipitation is apparent in satellite
imagery.

Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow spans the rest of the Gulf of
Mexico. A 1022 mb high pressure center is near 25N89W. The sea
heights range from 2 feet to 4 feet. Fresh northerly winds are in
the Straits of Florida. Moderate winds or slower are elsewhere.

A dissipating cold front offshore the Florida Big Bend area will
sustain moderate to fresh winds over the SE Gulf, including the
Florida Strait through early this afternoon. A 1020 mb high is
centered over the central Gulf, allowing moderate to fresh return
flow across the W Gulf. Toward mid-week, fresh to strong with
locally near-gale southerly flow and rough seas will develop
across much of the Gulf ahead of a cold front that will approach
the Texas coast.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The southernmost end of a cold front passes through 23N70W in the
Atlantic Ocean, to the Turks and Caicos Islands, to the Windward
Passage. The cold front becomes dissipating in the Windward
Passage, and it continues to just to the north of Jamaica to
18N81W. Fresh to strong NE winds are to the north of the frontal
boundary in the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea. The sea heights
range from 4 feet to 7 feet in the NW corner of the area.
Precipitation: isolated to widely scattered moderate in clusters
of broken to overcast multilayered clouds, cover the area that is
from 70W westward.

Fresh to strong SE winds are within 210 nm of the coast of
Venezuela between 66W and 70W. Moderate winds or slower are
elsewhere in the Caribbean Sea. The sea heights range from 4 feet
to 7 feet in the central sections, and in the SW corner of the
area. The sea heights range from 3 feet to 5 feet elsewhere.

A dissipating stationary front stretches from the Windward
Passage to W of Jamaica. Moderate to fresh NE winds will prevail
across the region through early this afternoon. This front will
dissipate later this afternoon. High pressure over the central
Atlantic will promote fresh to strong trades in the S central
Gulf, N of Colombia through midweek, and in the lee of Cuba and
the Windward Passage this evening through Tue night. Trades across
the N central and NE basin will become moderate to fresh by Tue
morning. Fresh trade winds along with larger trade- wind swell
will persist for the Atlantic waters E of the Lesser Antilles
through the forecast period.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front passes through 31N61W, to 23N70W, beyond the Windward
Passage, into the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea. Precipitation:
widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 150 nm to
the east of the cold front. The sea heights range from 8 feet to
11 feet from 28N northward from 70W westward. The sea heights
range from 4 feet to 6 feet, elsewhere, from 60W westward.

A dissipating cold front passes through 31N72W, to the eastern coast
of Florida near 28N. No significant deep convective precipitation
is apparent in satellite imagery.

A 1021 mb high pressure center is near 29N49W. Broad surface
anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 13N
northward between 40W and the 31N61W-to-Windward Passage cold
front. Mostly moderate to some fresh anticyclonic winds cover this
area.

A third cold front is in eastern Atlantic Ocean, passing through
31N15W, through the Canary Islands to 22N20W, 17N30W, and to
17N40W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated
strong is from 27N northward from the cold front eastward; and
from 27N northward between 20W and 30W. The sea heights range from
8 feet to 10 feet from the cold front to 26N from 40W eastward,
and from 15 feet to 20 feet from 26N northward from 40W eastward.
The comparatively highest sea heights are near 31N25W. The sea
heights range mostly from 6 feet to 7 feet, elsewhere, with some
isolated areas of 7 feet to 8 feet. Near gale-force to gale-force
winds are from 29N northward between 24W and 30W, from 120 nm to
270 nm to the southwest of the 997 mb low pressure center that is
near 32N24W. Fresh to strong NW winds are from 23N to 29N between
20W and 31W. Fresh southerly winds are from 25N northward from 20W
eastward. Fresh northerly winds are from 25N northward between 30W
and 40W. Mostly fresh NE winds are from 15N southward between 30W
and 60W.

A weak cold front extends from W of Bermuda across 31N73W to
central Florida. Another front stretches from 31N61W to the
Windward Passage. These features will sustain fresh to strong
winds for the offshore waters E of N and central Florida, and the
W central Atlantic waters through Mon. By Mon night, a high
pressure building eastward from Florida should bring improving
conditions. Seas will range from 8 to 10 ft in the vicinity of the
fronts through Mon.

$$
MT/PC
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