[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 270527
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Sun Mar 27 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gale Warning E of 35W: A gale-force 995 mb low pressure system
centered near 34N25W, or about 500 nm northwest of the Canary
Islands, is forecast to move toward the south-southeast to near
30N23W over the next 24 hours while weakening some. Gale-force
winds will occur in its western semicircle this morning from
30N-31N between 25W-30W, in the marine zone Irving. Winds will
diminish below gale force by this afternoon, as the low pressure
system weakens. Wave heights of 15-20 ft are expected today
where the gales occur. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast
issued by Meteo-France at website
http://weather.gmdss.org/II.html for details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea near 09N13W
to 03N19W. The ITCZ continues from 03N19W to 00N36W to the coast
of Brazil near 02S44.5W. Numerous moderate and scattered strong
convection is noted from 03S-08N between 13W-17W. Scattered
moderate convection is from 04S-03N between 24W-32W. Isolated
moderate convection is occurring from 03S-01N west of 36W to the
coast of South America.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Surface ridging prevails across most of the basin, anchored by a
1020 mb high pressure centered near 27N92W. Recent ASCAT
satellite wind data show gentle wind speeds across much of the
Gulf. However, fresh W winds are occurring in the NE Gulf. These
winds are likely being induced by an east-west oriented cold
front, currently situated across the Florida Panhandle. Seas are
2-4 ft in the eastern Gulf and 1-3 ft in the western Gulf. The
highest seas are found in the Yucatan Channel, currently
estimated at 4 to 5 ft.

For the forecast, the cold front over the Florida Panhandle will
sink southward across N Florida early this morning. It is
expected to cause moderate to fresh winds across the E Gulf
through this morning. In its wake, the 1020 mb high currently
over the western Gulf will move eastward across the northern
Gulf today, allowing for moderate to fresh return flow to become
established over the western and S central Gulf by this evening.
Toward mid-week, strong with locally near-gale southerly flow
and rough seas will develop across much of the Gulf ahead of
another cold front that will approach the Texas coast.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A cold front extends from eastern Cuba near 20N77W to 20N79W,
where the front becomes stationary, passing through the Cayman
Islands and ending near 17.5N85W. Scattered clouds with possible
isolated showers are near the front. A secondary front,
mentioned in the previous discussion, has now dissipated. Mainly
moderate, with possible localized fresh north to northeast winds
are located to the northwest of the front, according to the
latest ASCAT and buoy data. Seas are likely 5 to 6 ft in this
area, highest in the Gulf of Honduras. As for the remainder of
the basin, the latest ASCAT data shows fresh trades across the
south-central Caribbean, mainly south of 15N between 63W-77W,
where seas are likely 5-7 ft. Gentle to moderate winds prevail
elsewhere with 4-5 ft seas.

For the forecast, the stationary front will sustain moderate to
fresh northerly winds across the region, including in the Gulf
of Honduras through early this morning. The front will gradually
dissipate over the NW Caribbean today. High pressure over the
central Atlantic will promote fresh to strong trades in the S
central Caribbean, N of Colombia through midweek, and in the lee
of Cuba and the Windward Passage from this evening through Tue
night. Trades across the N central and NE basin will become
moderate to fresh by Tue morning.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the Special Features section above for more
information on the Gale Warning in the eastern Atlantic.

Three cold fronts are over the western Atlantic. The westernmost
front extends from 31N80W to Jacksonville, Florida. Recent ASCAT
data show strong to near gale force W winds associated with this
front, to the east of northern Florida. West of 70W, seas
increase from 6 ft near 27N to 10 ft near 31N. A second cold
front extends from 31N69W to 25N75W, dissipating to 23N78W.
Fresh winds are behind this front, north of 29N, with weaker
winds farther south. A third cold front extends from 31N64W to
25N70W to eastern Cuba near 21N76W. Broken to overcast clouds
with isolated showers are associated with this front. Moderate
to fresh SW winds are within 180 nm east of this front, north of
25N. Weaker winds are elsewhere with this front. Seas of 6-8 ft
are near the front north of 25N.

Farther east, a 1022 mb high pressure is centered near 29N46W.
Gentle winds cover the area from 20N-31N between 40W-55W. A cold
front extends from the 995 mb low pressure, mentioned above in
the special features section, to 30N18W to 25N20W to 21N25W to
19N32W. Scattered showers are north of 27N near the front. Fresh
to strong winds are north of 25N between 15W-35W, associated
with this system, with near-gale force winds now moving south of
31N between 25W-30W. Seas are 12 to 18 ft in the fresh to strong
wind area.

For the forecast, the westernmost cold front that just moved off
northern Florida will steadily move eastward through Mon
morning, with strong winds progressing into the W central
Atlantic waters. The fresh SW winds that are east of the cold
front extending from 31N64W to 25N70W are anticipated to shift
eastward across the central Atlantic through Mon. By Mon night,
a high pressure building eastward from Florida should bring
improving conditions to the western Atlantic.

$$
Hagen
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