[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 262355
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Sun Mar 27 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gale Warning E of 35W: A gale-force 994 mb low pressure system
centered near 35N25W, or about 580 nm northwest of the Canary
Islands is forecast to move toward the south-southeastward to
near 32W24W while weakening some. Gale-force winds in its
western semicircle will move south of 31N on Sunday morning. Gale
conditions are present over the western part of marine zone
Irving. Wave heights of 10-16 ft will build to 15-21 ft on Sun.
Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by Meteo-
France, at the following website: http://weather.gmdss.org/II.html,
for details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coastal plains of Liberia
near 05N09W to 02N17W where latest scatterometer data indicates
that it transitions to the ITCZ and continues to the Equator
at 25W, to 02S30W and to the coast of Brazil near 03S40W. A
separate surface trough extends from the Prime Meridian at 04N,
to the Equator near 04W. Numerous strong convection is noted
within 240 nm north of the monsoon trough east of 13W to inland
Africa and within 120 nm north of the monsoon trough between
13W-14W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is
from 03S to 03N between 09W-15W. Scattered moderate convection
is within 60 nm of the ITCZ between 27W-33W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front has pushed southeast of the basin, and extends from
western Cuba to just east of the northeast tip of the Yucatan
Peninsula. In its wake high pressure has build over the region,
anchored by 1023 mb high center over the western Gulf near
24N93W. This is providing mostly clear skies throughout. Only
a few patches of high-level clouds streaming eastward are
over the western Gulf ,and small patches of low-level clouds are
over the far south-central Gulf near the Yucatan Channel and
over the north-central Gulf from 27N to 28N between 86W-89W.

Wave heights are in the range of 3-5 ft east of 90W, except
2-4 ft north of 25N, and 1-3 ft west of 90W.

For the forecast, a cold front associated with strong low
pressure over the northeastern U.S. will sink across N Florida
this evening. It is expected to sustain moderate to fresh winds
across the E Gulf through Sun morning. In its wake, a 1023 mb
high currently over the western Gulf will move across northern
Gulf through Sun allowing for moderate to fresh return flow to
become established over the western and S central Gulf by Sun
evening. Toward mid-week, fresh to strong with locally near-gale
southerly flow and rough seas will develop across much of the
Gulf ahead of another cold front that will approach the Texas
coast.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A weakening cold front extends from eastern Cuba southwestward
to the north-central Gulf of Honduras. Mainly fresh north to
northeast winds are northwest of this front, with wave heights of
5-7 ft. Broken multilayer clouds with isolated to scattered
showers are along and northwest of the front to near 86W. A
second cold front extends from the central Bahamas to western
Cuba and to just east of the northeast tip of the Yucatan
Peninsula. Latest ASCAT data passes show moderate north to
northeast winds north of the front reaching the far southern Gulf
of Mexico between 84W- 89W, including the Yucatan Channel. Wave
heights are 4-5 ft behind the front. Scattered to broken low
clouds are along the front.

Moderate to fresh easterly winds are east of 80W, while fresh
to strong northeast to east winds are within 900 nm of the coast
of Colombia between 72W-76W and mainly gentle northeast winds
are west of 80W to east of the first cold front mentioned above.
Wave heights range from 4-6 ft in the central sections, 5-7 ft
in the eastern and southwestern sections of the sea and 3-4 ft
elsewhere.

For the forecast, the weakening cold front that extends from
eastern Cuba to north-central Gulf of Honduras will sustain
moderate to fresh northerly winds across the region, including
the Gulf of Honduras through tonight. This front should gradually
dissipate over the NW Caribbean on Sun. High pressure over the
central Atlantic will promote fresh to strong trades in the S
central Gulf, N of Colombia through midweek, and in the lee of
Cuba and the Windward Passage from Sun evening through Tue night.
For the same reason, trade winds across the north-central and
northeast part of the basin will become moderate to fresh by Tue
morning. Fresh trade winds along with larger trade-wind swell
will continue over the Atlantic waters east of the Lesser
Antilles through mid- week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the Special Features section above for more
information on the Gale Warning in the eastern Atlantic.

A cold front extends from near 31N63W to the southeastern
Bahamas and to eastern Cuba. A second cold front extends from
near 31N72W to the central Bahamas and to western Cuba. Northwest
to north moderate winds are north of the two cold fronts.
Moderate to fresh southerly winds are to the south and southeast
of the first cold front, except for fresh to strong southwest
winds north of 25N as noted in the latest ASCAT data pass.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are seen within 90 nm
northwest of the first front north of 28N. Isolated showers
are possible elsewhere along and near the front.

Over the central Atlantic, a 1023 mb high center is analyzed
near 30N57W. Associated anticyclonic wind flow is present north
of 19N between 35W and the first cold front mentioned above.

In the eastern Atlantic, a cold front extends from a 994 mb
gale-force low pressure system that is north of the area near
35N25W southeastward to 31N20W and southwest from there to
24N24W to 20N40W and dissipating west to 20N45W. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms, under cold air instability aloft, are
north of 26N west of the front to near 28W. Wave heights are in
the range of 9-14 ft north and northwest of the cold front.
Outside near-gale to the gale-force winds, fresh to strong
northerly winds are north of 24N between the front and 35W. Fresh
southerly winds are present north of 25N and east of cold front.
Fresh northerly winds are elsewhere north of the cold front
between 30W-40W, while fresh northeast winds are south of 20N and
between 40W-60W. Wave heights are in the range of 9-14 ft north
and northwest of the cold front. Wave heights are in the 6-8 ft
range south of 20N and between 30W-60W. Lower wave heights in
the 4-7 ft range east of the front.

For the forecast W of 65W, the cold front that extends from
near 31N72W to the central Bahamas and to western Cuba will
sustain moderate to fresh westerly winds for the offshore waters
E of N and central Florida this evening. A second cold front is
forecast to move across northern Florida late tonight, which
should cause these winds to increase to between fresh and strong.
As this front steadily moves eastward through Mon morning, these
conditions should progress into the west-central Atlantic
waters. Fresh to locally strong southwest winds east of the
cold front that extends from 31N63W to the southeastern Bahamas
and to eastern Cuba will shift eastward across the central
Atlantic through Mon. By Mon night, high pressure building
eastward from Florida should bring improving conditions.

$$
Aguirre
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