[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 261802
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Sat Mar 26 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1740 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN GALE-FORCE WIND WARNING...

A gale-force 997 mb low pressure center is about 660 nm to the
northwest of the Canary Islands. This low pressure center is
forecast to move toward the south-southeast to 33N25W during the
next 24 hours. It is likely for gale-force winds, that are on the
western side of the low pressure center, to move to the south of
31N early on Sunday morning. The Meteo-France outlook for the
period from 27/1200-28/1200 UTC, consists of cyclonic near gale or
gale- force winds for the marine zones: Josephine, Irving,
Madeira, and Meteor. The sea heights will build to ranges from 15
feet to 20 feet in the area. Please, read the latest High Seas
Forecast issued by Meteo-France, at the following website:
http://weather.gmdss.org/II.html, for details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Liberia
near 05N09W, to 02N17W. The ITCZ continues from 02N17W, to the
Equator along 25W, to 03S34W, to the coast of Brazil near 03S40W.
A separate surface trough passes through the Prime Meridian at
04N, to the Equator along 04W. Precipitation: numerous strong is
from 02S to 09N between 05W and 12W. Widely scattered moderate to
isolated strong is elsewhere from 08N southward from 60W eastward.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A first cold front is in the Atlantic Ocean, about 200 nm to 300
nm to the east of a second cold front. The second cold front passes
through the NW Bahamas, through the Straits of Florida, into the
SE Gulf of Mexico. Broken to overcast multilayered clouds are
between the cold front and Cuba and the Yucatan Channel. Moderate
wind speeds or slower span the Gulf of Mexico. The sea heights
range from 3 feet to 5 feet from 90W eastward, and from 1 foot to
3 feet elsewhere.

Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the rest of the Gulf
of Mexico, away from the cold front. A 1021 mb high pressure
center is near 24N94W.

A cold front extends across the Florida Strait to just N of the
Yucatan Peninsula. It is sustaining moderate northerly winds
behind it across the E Gulf and should move out of the basin later
this afternoon. A strong cold front will approach N Florida this
evening, and bring moderate to fresh winds across the E Gulf
through Sun morning. Moderate to fresh return flow can be expected
across the W Gulf by Sun night or Mon morning. Toward midweek,
fresh to strong southerly flow will spread across most of the Gulf
as a third cold front approaches the Texas coast on Wed.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A first Atlantic Ocean cold front passes through 31N66W, to the
SE Bahamas near 23N75W, through Cuba near 21N78W, to 20N83W in the
NW Caribbean Sea. The front becomes stationary, from 20N83W, and
curving to the coast of Honduras near 18N86W. Fresh to strong
northerly winds are on the northwestern side of the frontal
boundary. The first Atlantic Ocean cold front is about 200 nm to
300 nm to the east of a second cold front. The second cold front
passes through the NW Bahamas, through the Straits of Florida,
into the SE Gulf of Mexico. Broken to overcast multilayered
clouds are between the second cold front, the front that is in the
SE Gulf of Mexico, and Cuba and the Yucatan Channel. Broken to
overcast multilayered clouds, and possible rainshowers, are to the
north and northwest of the line that runs from southern coastal
Haiti, to the eastern coastal areas of Honduras.

Rainshowers are possible, in areas of broken to overcast
multilayered clouds, in areas of moisture in the trade wind flow.
The comparatively greatest amount of precipitation is in the
central sections of the Caribbean Sea.

Moderate to fresh easterly winds cover the Caribbean Sea from 80W
eastward. Fresh to strong NE winds are within 120 nm of the coast
of Colombia between 72W and 76W. The sea heights range from 6 feet
to 7 feet in the central sections, and in the SW corner of the
area. The sea heights range from 4 feet to 6 feet from the frontal
boundary northward and northwestward. The sea heights range from 2
feet to 4 feet elsewhere.

A nearly stationary front stretches from central Cuba to N
central Honduras in the NW Caribbean. It will sustain fresh to
strong northerly winds across the region, including the Gulf of
Honduras until early this afternoon. This front should gradually
dissipate over the NW Caribbean on Sun. High pressure N of the
area will bring fresh to strong trades in the lee of Cuba and the
Windward Passage Sun evening, and should last into midweek.
Moderate to fresh winds across the E and central Caribbean will
continue through the weekend. Fresh to strong trades over the S
central Caribbean N of Colombia will persist through midweek.
Fresh trade winds along with larger trade-wind swell will persist
for the Atlantic waters E of the Lesser Antilles through midweek.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for more information
about the Gale-Force Warning, for the eastern Atlantic Ocean.

A first cold front passes through 31N66W, to the SE Bahamas near
23N75W, through Cuba near 21N78W, to 20N83W in the NW Caribbean
Sea. A second cold front is from 200 nm to 300 nm to the west and
northwest of the first cold front. The second cold front passes
through the NW Bahamas, through the Straits of Florida, into the
SE Gulf of Mexico. Fresh northerly winds are on the northern side
of the two cold fronts. Fresh southerly winds are to the south and
southeast of the first cold front. Precipitation: widely
scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 90 nm to the east
of the first cold front from 26N northward. Isolated moderate is
elsewhere within 120 nm to the east of the first cold front from
24N northward. A 1023 mb high pressure near 32N47W. Surface
anticyclonic wind flow is to the north and northwest of the
eastern Atlantic Ocean cold front.

A cold front extends from the 997 mb gale-force winds low
pressure center, passing through 31N22W, to 22N30W, to 21N40W. The
cold front is dissipating from 21N40W to 22N47W. Precipitation:
scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 240 nm to the east
of the cold front from 26N northward. The sea heights range from 8
feet to 14 feet to the north and northwest of the cold front. The
sea heights range from 6 feet to 8 feet from 20N southward between
30W and 60W. The sea heights range from 3 feet to 5 feet from 20N
northward from the cold front eastward. The sea heights range from
4 feet to 6 feet from 20N southward from 30W eastward. The sea
heights range from 4 feet to 7 feet, elsewhere, from 20N northward
to the west of the eastern Atlantic Ocean cold front. Fresh to
strong northerly winds are from 24N northward between the front
and 35W, elsewhere away from the near gale-force to impending
gale-force winds, from the cold front northward and northwestward.
Fresh southerly winds are from 25N northward from the cold front
eastward. Fresh northerly winds are elsewhere from the cold front
northward between 30W and 40W. Fresh NE winds are from 20N
southward between 40W and 60W.

The first cold front stretches from 31N66W across the central
Bahamas to central Cuba. It will continue progressing eastward
over the W and central Atlantic through the weekend, bringing
fresh to strong SW winds ahead of it through Sun. A second cold
front extends from 31N74W to the Florida Strait. Fresh to strong
westerly winds will follow this front as it moves eastward over
the W Atlantic through Sun morning. A third cold front will
approach N Florida tonight, and prolong these winds through Sun
evening. By early next week, a high pressure over Florida should
bring improving conditions.

$$
MT/PC/MMT
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