[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 260552
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator
to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery,
weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

East Atlantic Gale Warning: A gale force 998 mb low pressure
near 38N28W is forecast to move south-southeastward to near
33N24W during the next 24 hours. Gales on the west side of the
low pressure are likely to move south of 31N early Sun morning.
The Meteo-France outlook for the period 27/0000-28/0000 UTC
calls for cyclonic near gale or gale over portions of the marine
zones Meteor, Irving and Madeira. Seas will build to 15-18 ft in
the area. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by
Meteo-France at website http://weather.gmdss.org/II.html for
details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis extends from the coast of Guinea-Bissau
near 11N15W to 04N15W to 00N18W. The ITCZ continues from 00N18W
to 02S33W to 01S46W. Scattered moderate isolated strong
convection is noted from 02S to 04N between 02W and 50W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A reinforcing cold front extends from Sarasota Florida to
23.5N87W and is accompanied by a line of clouds with no
precipitation. A recent ASCAT pass shows moderate to fresh NW
winds over the NE Gulf behind the front. High pressure of 1021
mb has built in over the western Gulf, where gentle anticyclonic
winds prevail. The ASCAT satellite data shows fresh N winds in
the Yucatan Channel, increasing to strong farther south, to the
east of the Yucatan Peninsula. The latest buoy data shows
significant wave heights up to 6 ft in the NE Gulf. Seas are
likely 4-6 ft over the eastern Gulf and 2-3 ft over the western
Gulf.

For the forecast, the reinforcing cold front will bring moderate
to locally fresh winds behind it until it exits the basin later
this morning. After briefly diminishing later today, moderate to
locally fresh winds will return to the eastern Gulf tonight
through the remainder of the weekend, due to an approaching cold
front over the southeastern U.S. that should stall north of the
Gulf Coast. By early next week, moderate to fresh return flow is
expected to develop across the western Gulf. SE to S winds are
likely to increase to strong by mid-week across most of the
basin in response to a cold front over Texas.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Mid-level anticyclonic flow prevails across the eastern half of
the Caribbean Sea, where fairly dry air is in place. A cold
front extends across the NW Caribbean Sea from central Cuba to
the north-central coast of Honduras. The front has recently
become stationary from 19N85W to 16N86.5W. Isolated showers are
near and within 60 nm NW of the front. A recent ASCAT satellite
wind pass shows  strong N winds behind the front, to the east of
the Yucatan Peninsula. Seas are likely 7-9 ft in this area. The
ASCAT data show gentle winds east of the front to Jamaica, where
seas are 3-5 ft. Fresh trades prevail over the eastern Caribbean
east of 77W, locally strong near the coast of Colombia and in
the Gulf of Venezuela. Seas are mainly 5-8 ft in this area,
except 7-9 ft near the coast of Colombia.

For the forecast, fresh to strong winds will continue NW of the
cold front, including in the Gulf of Honduras, through early
this morning. The front will gradually dissipate over the NW
Caribbean by Sun. A high pressure progressing eastward across
the NE Gulf of Mexico will cause NE trades to become fresh to
strong in the lee of Cuba and in the Windward Passage by early
next week. Moderate to fresh winds across the eastern and
central Caribbean will decrease to moderate by this afternoon.
Fresh to locally strong trades over the S central Caribbean N of
Colombia will persist through early next week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the Special Features section above for more
information on the Gale Warning in the eastern Atlantic.

A cold front extends from 31N71W to Cat Island, Bahamas to
central Cuba near 22N80W. Scattered moderate convection is
within 45 nm behind and 90 nm ahead of the front, north of 25.5N
and east of 73W. Scattered showers are elsewhere within 210 nm
west of the front, north of 24N and east of 79W. Fresh SW winds
are ahead of the front, while moderate NW winds are west of the
front, according to recent ASCAT data. However, fresh to strong
winds are creeping into the area to the east of northern
Florida, in association with a reinforcing cold front, which
currently extends from 31N79W to Cape Canaveral Florida. Buoy
data from NOAA buoy 41010 near 28.9N 78.5W shows winds have
recently increased to 27 kt with seas 5 ft. Seas increase from 5
ft near the Bahamas to 8 ft near 31N.

A 1023 mb high pressure near 33N51W extends surface ridging
across the central Atlantic, with gentle winds and 5-6 ft seas
prevailing north of 24N between 47W-60W. Farther east, a cold
front extends from 31N28W to 25N34W to 23N42W. Scattered
moderate convection is within 90 nm either side of the cold
front, mainly north of 27N and east of 28W. ASCAT data from
Friday evening shows strong to near gale force winds on both
sides of the front, mainly north of 27N between 26W-38W. Seas
are likely currently 12 to 15 ft in this area. Fresh trade winds
prevail in the tropical Atlantic from 03N-17N between 40W and
the Lesser Antilles, with seas mainly 8 to 9 ft in the area.

For the forecast W of 65W, the cold front that stretches from
31N71W to central Cuba will progress eastward through the
weekend, bringing fresh to strong NW winds behind it and SW
winds ahead of it. This should also allow fresh SE winds N of
Hispaniola to decrease to moderate later this morning. The
reinforcing cold front, currently moving off the NE Florida
coast, will continue to produce fresh to strong winds behind it
as it shifts eastward over the next few days. A third cold front
will dip near the Florida coast by tonight, bringing a
reinforcing round of strong winds through Sun. For early next
week, a high pressure exiting the Florida coast should bring
improving conditions.

$$
Hagen
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