[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 240513
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Thu Mar 24 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Gale Warning: Winds are pulsing to gale force tonight
and will do it again Thu night. Seas will peak around 12 to 13
ft on Thu morning. Winds and seas should gradually diminish by
the weekend. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued
by the National Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 09N14W
to 01N22W. The ITCZ extends from 01N22W to the coast of Brazil
near 04S38W. Scattered moderate convection in the vicinity of the
ITCZ S of 02N and W of 30W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends from 30N85W to 25N88W to 19N92W. A pre-
frontal trough extends from 29N83W to 27N84W. Scattered showers
prevail in the vicinity of the front/trough mainly N of 27N.
Recent buoy data depict seas of 4-7 ft over the northeast Gulf.
Fresh to strong NW to N winds are noted west of the front, with
moderate to fresh S winds east of the front. Seas are 5 to 8 ft
west of the front, and 3 to 6 ft east of the front.

For the forecast, fresh to strong northerly winds will continue
behind the front through Thu morning, mostly in the SW Gulf. The
front will reach the Yucatan Peninsula mid Thu morning, and then
over the NW Caribbean and W Cuba Fri morning. Showers and
thunderstorms will continue along the front through Thu evening.
A weak cold front will enter the NW Gulf on Thu and bring
moderate to fresh winds behind it. This front will arrive at the
NE Gulf by Fri afternoon and exit by Sat evening.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see the Special Features section for information on a Gale
Warning in the south-central Caribbean off the coast of Colombia.

Mid-level anticyclonic flow prevails across the basin, which is
leading to subsidence and mostly dry conditions. Moderate to
fresh trades dominate the basin, except fresh to strong in the
south-central Caribbean, northeast of the Gulf of Honduras, and
south-southwest of Haiti. Seas are 7 to 10 ft in the south-
central Caribbean, 6 to 8 ft south-southwest of Haiti, and mainly
4 to 7 ft elsewhere.

For the forecast, high pressure N of the area will sustain pulsing
winds to minimal gale-force near the coast of Colombia tonight
and Thu night. Fresh to strong winds will prevail across the
central Caribbean through Fri night. Fresh to strong winds will
prevail in the Gulf of Honduras tonight. Fresh to locally strong
winds will prevail in the E Caribbean through Fri night. Fresh
trade winds, along with large trade-wind swell, across the
Tropical Atlantic forecast zones will persist through the weekend.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1025 mb high pressure is centered near 30N66W. Light to gentle
anticyclonic winds are under the high along with 3 to 5 ft seas,
from roughly north of 26N between 62W and 71W. Moderate to fresh
anticyclonic flow prevails elsewhere west of 65W, locally fresh
to strong north of Hispaniola. Seas are 5 to 7 ft across the
remainder of the waters west of 65W in mixed swell. Farther
east, a surface trough extends from 31N44W to 24N57W. Scattered
showers are noted along the trough mainly N of 30N. Moderate to
fresh winds are noted in the central Atlantic north of 29N
between 40W and 55W, with stronger winds north of 31N due to a
large, and complex gale-force low pressure system well north of
the area. NW to N swell from that system is likely currently
reaching as far south as 29N, with seas of 8 to 11 ft from 29N to
31N over the central Atlantic. Surface ridging prevails from a
1027 mb high pressure north of the area and southwest of the
Azores near 35N28W to 31N45W to 24N60W. Gentle winds are within a
few hundred nm of the ridge axis, where seas are 5 to 6 ft.
Fresh to locally strong NE winds are noted elsewhere southeast
and south of the ridging, except moderate to fresh south of 20N
and west of 55W. Seas are 7 to 11 ft across the waters southeast
and south of the ridging.

For the forecast W of 65W, fresh trade winds offshore
Hispaniola, including the Windward Passage will pulse to strong
tonight and Thu night. Fresh to strong SE to S winds off NE
Florida are going to continue through Thu morning before shifting
eastward Thu afternoon. A cold front will push off the NE
Florida coast late Thu afternoon. It will maintain fresh to
strong southerly winds to its E, and northerly winds to its W
over the waters N of 27N through Fri. A second cold front will
move into the western Atlantic late Fri, bringing more fresh to
locally strong winds behind it. Afterward, a strengthening low
pressure off the Carolina coast should prolong these winds
through Sun.

For the forecast E of 65W, a low pressure system late this week
near the Azores will extend a cold front south-southwestward,
bringing strong to near gale force winds to the area north of 25N
between 25W and 50W, Thu night through Fri night, spreading
eastward through upcoming weekend. Seas are forecast to build to
10 to 17 ft over the area of these winds.

$$
ERA
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