[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 230454
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Wed Mar 23 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0430 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Gale Warning: Winds off the coast of Colombia are
currently NE strong breeze and are pulsing to gale force tonight
and again Wed night. Seas will peak around 12 ft overnight and
on Wed night in the highest winds. Winds and seas should
gradually diminish through the end of the week. Please read the
latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane
Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml
for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the border Sierra Leone and
Liberia near 07N11W to 03N14W. The ITCZ continues from 03N14W to
the coast of Brazil near 02S45W. Isolated moderate to strong
convection is noted south of 07N west of 37W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends across the W Gulf from 30N93W to 21N97W.
Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted N of
27N between 87W-90W. Latest scatterometer data depicts fresh to
strong NW winds W of the front, while moderate to fresh southerly
winds are noted SE of the front. Seas are 8-10 ft N of 23N and
west of 90W, and 3 to 6 ft seas prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast, the cold front will continue moving SE across
the basin. Fresh to strong southerly winds will pick up across
the eastern Gulf through early Wed morning ahead of the front.
Fresh to strong northerly winds are expected behind the front
through Thu night, mostly in the southwest Gulf. The front will
reach the SE waters by Wed night, and move just SE of the area by
Thu night. Showers and thunderstorms will continue along the
front through Thu.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see the Special Features section for information on a Gale
Warning in the south-central Caribbean off the coast of Colombia.

Outside of the gale warning area, moderate to fresh E trades
prevail over the central Caribbean with 6-8 ft seas. The latest
observations indicate moderate E trades in the Eastern
Caribbean, with seas of 4-6 ft. In the W Caribbean, SE trades
are moderate and seas are 4-6 ft. While no significant convection
is apparent on satellite across the Caribbean, patches of low-
level moisture embedded in the trade flow may produce isolated
showers tonight.

For the forecast, high pressure north of the area will support pulsing
winds to gale-force near the coast of Colombia tonight and Wed
night. Fresh to strong winds will prevail across the central
Caribbean through Fri night. Fresh to strong winds are also
expected in the Gulf of Honduras through Wed night. Fresh to
locally strong winds will prevail in the eastern Caribbean
through Fri. Fresh trade winds, along with large trade- wind
swell, across the Tropical Atlantic forecast zones will persist
during the forecast period.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 31N50W to 25N64W. W of the front to
the Florida coast, moderate to fresh E to SE flow prevails along
the southern periphery of high pressure centered at 30N69W with
5-7 ft seas. E of 50W, across the remainder of the tropical
Atlantic, fresh to strong NE trades prevail with 8-11 ft seas in
N swell.

For the forecast west of 65W, fresh winds will pulse to strong
nightly offshore Hispaniola and into the Windward Passage
through Wed night. Fresh to strong SE to S winds are expected off
NE Florida from Wed morning through Thu. A cold front will push
off the NE Florida coast by Thu afternoon. The fresh to strong
southerly wind will persist ahead of the front over the waters N
of 27N through Fri.

$$
ERA
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