[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 221743
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Tue Mar 22 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1720 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Gale Warning: Winds off the coast of Colombia will
pulse to gale force tonight and Wed night. The latest satellite
altimeter data captured 12 ft seas in the warning area earlier
this morning. Today, seas will range from 8-11 ft, then peak at
12 ft overnight in the highest winds. Please read the latest NWS
High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at
website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more
details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the border Sierra Leone and
Liberia near 07N11W to 03N14W. The ITCZ continues from 03N14W to
02S33W to the coast of Brazil near 03S45W. Scattered moderate
isolated strong convection is from the ITCZ north to 02N west of
45W. Scattered moderate convection is also located from the
equator north to 03N between 20W and 37W, and from 04N to 08N
between 44W and 53W, including coastal regions of French Guiana.

GULF OF MEXICO...

At 1500 UTC, a cold front extends across the NW Gulf from
Galveston, Texas to Brownsville, Texas. Ahead of the front, a
trough extends from the Texas-Louisiana border to 23N97W to 1007
mb low pressure centered near 21N95W. Scattered moderate
convection is along the trough north of 28N, with frequent
lightning detected. West of both the front and the trough, fresh
to strong NW winds are occurring according to recent surface
observations. East of the front and trough, fresh to strong SE to
S winds have been reported across the basin north of 27N. A few
surface reports indicate near gale force gusts in the north-
central Gulf. Seas are 8-10 ft north of 25N and west of 89W. Elsewhere
in the Gulf of Mexico, mainly fresh SE flow prevails with seas of
6-8 ft.

For the forecast, strong southerly return flow is expected across
the western Gulf today ahead of the aforementioned cold front
forecast to move farther into the basin this afternoon. Fresh to
strong SE to S winds will prevail elsewhere. This front will reach
the SE waters by late Thu, and move just SE of the area by Thu
night. Fresh to strong northerly winds will follow the front on
Wed, mainly across the western Gulf.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see the Special Features section for information on a Gale
Warning in the south-central Caribbean off the coast of Colombia.

Outside of the gale warning area, moderate to fresh trades
prevail over the central Caribbean with 6-8 ft seas. The latest
scatterometer indicates moderate trades in the Eastern Caribbean,
which curve cyclonically around a trough analyzed along 64W from
12N to 18N. Seas are 4-6 ft in the E Caribbean. In the W
Caribbean, trades are moderate and seas are 4-6 ft. Observations
this morning indicated strong winds in the Windward Passage.
While no significant convection is apparent on satellite across
the Caribbean, patches of low level moisture embedded in the trade
flow may produce isolated showers today.

For the forecast, high pressure north of the area will support
pulsing winds to minimal gale force near the coast of Colombia
tonight and Wed night. Fresh to locally strong winds will prevail
elsewhere across the central and eastern Caribbean. Fresh trade
winds, along with large trade-wind swell, across the Tropical
Atlantic forecast zones will persist during the forecast period.
Fresh to locally strong winds are expected in the Gulf of Honduras
tonight and Wed night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 31N53W to 26N64W then becomes
stationary to 24N74W. Scattered showers are within 120 nm east of
the front north of 28N. West of the front to the Florida Coast,
gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow prevails along the southern
periphery of high pressure centered north of the discussion area,
with 4-6 ft seas. North of 15N and and west of 50W, gentle to
moderate E to SE winds and 4-7 ft seas are noted. South of 15N and
west of 50W, seas are 8-10 ft with fresh NE flow. East of 50W,
across the remainder of the tropical Atlantic, fresh NE winds
prevail with 8-11 ft seas in N swell.

For the forecast W of 65W, fresh winds will pulse to strong
nightly into mid- week offshore Hispaniola and into the Windward
Passage. A cold front extending from 25N65W to 24N75W will stall
and dissipate by mid-week. Fresh to strong SE to S winds are
expected off NE Florida tonight through Thu ahead of the next cold
front forecast to enter the western Atlantic by Thu afternoon.
The fresh to strong southerly wind will persist ahead of the front
over the waters N of 27N through Fri.

$$
Mahoney
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