[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 220444
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Tue Mar 22 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0410 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Gale Warning...Gale force winds are ongoing within 90
nm of the coast of Colombia tonight and expected to diminish
below gale force by sunrise. Seas are expected to build to 10-12
ft during this time.

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning...A broad area of strong SE return
flow to around 30 kt prevails across the Texas and SW Louisiana
coastal waters late this afternoon and extends well offshore to
near 24N96W. These strong winds with frequent gusts to gale force
are expected to prevail tonight ahead of a cold front expected
to reach the Texas coast Tue afternoon. Seas of 8-11 ft are
expected to persist across these waters overnight before winds
diminish slightly and begin to shift westward ahead of the
front.

Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the
National Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends off the coast of Liberia near 06N11W
to 03N13W. The ITCZ continues from 03N13W to 02S26W to the coast
of Brazil near 03S40W. Scattered moderate convection is noted
from 06S to 03N between 07W to 33W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A warm front continues to extend across the NW Gulf from 30N94W
to 28N90W. Warm SE return flow is feeding into deepening low
pressure across the Central Plains tonight. The latest ASCAT
pass tonight shows an area of strong to near gale-force SE winds
across the NW Gulf from 22N to 28N between 91W and 96W. Moderate
to fresh southeasterly winds across the rest of the western Gulf
with fresh to locally strong winds across the SE Gulf and the
Straits of Florida where the tail-end of a stationary front is
located. Seas range 8-11 ft in the western and NW Gulf, with 5-7
feet in the eastern and central Gulf.

For the forecast, strong southerly return flow, with frequent
gusts to gale force, are expected across the western Gulf tonight
into Tue morning. Fresh to strong SE to S winds will prevail
elsewhere. The next cold front is forecast to enter the Gulf
waters by Tue afternoon, then reach the SE waters by late Thu.
Fresh to strong northerly winds will follow the front on Wed,
mainly across the western Gulf.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The latest ASCAT pass indicated strong winds prevailing over the
south-central Caribbean, with the gale-force winds near the
coast of Colombia. Fresh to strong winds prevail on the lee side
of Cuba. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate trade winds are noted
across the rest of the basin. No significant convection is
observed at this time. Seas are in the 8-10 ft range over the
south central Caribbean and 5-7 ft elsewhere over the north
central and eastern Caribbean. Seas are in the 3-4 ft range over
the western Caribbean.

For the forecast, high pressure north of the area will support
pulsing winds to minimal gale force near the coast of Colombia at
night through Wed night. Fresh to strong winds will prevail
elsewhere across the central and eastern Caribbean. Fresh trade
winds along with large trade-wind swell across the Tropical
Atlantic forecast zones will persist during the forecast period.
Fresh to locally strong winds are expected in the Gulf of Honduras
Tue night, and again Wed night.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 31N59W to 25N70W to 24N81W. A
pre-frontal trough is analyzed from 30N59W to 23N64W. Scattered
moderate convection is ahead of the front N of 26N between 55W
and 62W. Behind the front, moderate to fresh northerly winds are
noted with fresh easterly winds near the tail-end of the front
from the Bahamas to the Straits of Florida. Moderate to fresh
southerly winds are noted ahead of the front between 55W and
58W, otherwise light to gentle winds prevail. Seas 4-7 ft are
present in the vicinity of the front. Farther east, a cold front
is moving southward across the eastern Atlantic from 31N24W to
30N38W. A 1026 mb high is noted near 29N42W with surface ridging
extending out across the rest of the central Atlantic. Light to
gentle anticyclonic winds are noted near the high with gentle to
moderate northerly winds behind the front. Moderate to fresh
easterly winds are observed S of 24N across the rest of the
Atlantic. Seas range 8-10 ft.

For the forecast W of 65W, fresh winds will pulse to strong
nightly into mid-week offshore Hispaniola and into the Windward
Passage. A cold front extends from 26N65W to the Straits of
Florida. The front will move east across the region, then exit
the area by mid-week. Mainly fresh winds are noted on either side
of the front. Strong S flow may set up offshore FL by the middle
of the week ahead of the next cold front.

$$
AReinhart
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