[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 210545
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Mon Mar 21 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0530 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Sierra
Leone near 07N12W, to 04N14W and 02N16W. The ITCZ continues from
02N16W, to 01N22W, and to 01N39W. Precipitation: numerous moderate
and scattered strong are within 150 nm to the north of the ITCZ
between 18W and 22W. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong
is from 03N southward between 42W and NE Brazil, and from 02N
southward between 14W and 18W. Isolated moderate to locally
strong is elsewhere from 10N southward from 60W eastward.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front passes through 31N73W in the Atlantic Ocean, to the
eastern coast of Florida near 27N80W. The front becomes
stationary, from just to the south of Lake Okeechobee, to 26N83W
and 24N87W in the Gulf of Mexico. A surface trough curves, from
24N87W, to 23N91W, and to 18N92W. Precipitation: rainshowers are
possible within 60 nm on either side of the frontal boundary/
surface trough. Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the
Gulf of Mexico from 26N northward.

Fresh NE to E winds cover the Gulf of Mexico from the front
northward. Moderate NE wind flow is in the Bay of Campeche.
Fresh NW winds are along the coast of Mexico near Veracruz.
The sea heights range from 4 feet to 6 feet to the north of the
front. The sea heights range from 6 feet to 8 feet in the far SW
Gulf of Mexico.

A stationary front extends from near Naples, Florida, to just N
of the Yucatan Peninsula. This front will dissipate gradually
through Mon night. Strong to near-gale force southerly flow will
develop in much of the western and northern Gulf in advance of
the next cold front, that will move off the Texas coast by Tue
night. This cold front will move through the Gulf into late week.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Fresh to strong E winds and rough seas continue in the central
and eastern Caribbean Sea, due to the pressure gradient between
the tropical N Atlantic Ocean high pressure, and lower pressure
in Colombia. The comparatively fastest wind speeds, and sea
heights reaching 10 feet, are within 90 nm of the coast of
Colombia. Gentle to moderate wind speeds, and sea heights that
range from 3 feet to 5 feet, are in the western Caribbean Sea.

Patches of low level moisture, that are embedded in the trade
wind flow, are moving through the area, and producing isolated to
scattered passing rainshowers.

High pressure to the north of the area will support mainly fresh
trade winds, and large trade wind swell, in the Tropical Atlantic
Ocean forecast zones through the forecast period. Fresh to strong
winds will prevail in the central and eastern Caribbean Sea
during this time. Fresh to locally strong winds also will start
to pulse Tue night in the Gulf of Honduras.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front passes through 31N73W, to the eastern coast of
Florida near 27N80W. The front becomes stationary, from just to
the south of Lake Okeechobee, to 26N83W and 24N87W in the Gulf of
Mexico. Precipitation: scattered to numerous moderate, and
isolated strong, are from 29N northward between 68W and 71W.
Isolated moderate is elsewhere within 30 nm on either side of the
line 29N70W 27N75W. Isolated moderate rainshowers cover the
remainder of the area from 20N northward from 60W westward.
Strong NW winds are from 30N northward from 70W westward. The sea
heights are 8 feet and higher from 31N northward from 70W
westward.

The sea heights range from 8 feet to 13 feet between the line
14N17W 05N38W 06N49W, and the line 31N28W 25N43W. The sea heights
range from 7 feet to 9 feet from 24N southward, elsewhere,
between 40W and 60W. The sea heights range from 4 feet to 6 feet
in the remainder of the area that is from 60W eastward. The sea
heights also range from 4 feet to 6 feet from 60W westward.
Fresh to strong NE winds cover the Atlantic Ocean from 25N
southward, and within 135 nm to the north of Hispaniola. Moderate
wind speeds or slower cover the rest of the Atlantic Ocean.

Surface anticyclonic wind flow spans the Atlantic Ocean from 70W
eastward, away from the Atlantic Ocean-to-Florida cold front. A
1023 mb high pressure center is near 28N49W.

Fresh winds will pulse to strong nightly into mid-week offshore
Hispaniola and into the Windward Passage. A cold front extends
from 31N73W to South Florida. The front will move eastward through
the region, then exit the area mid-week. It is likely for strong
NW winds to follow this front along 30N. Strong S flow may set up
offshore FL by the middle of the week, in advance of the next
cold front.

$$
MT
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