[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 190930
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Sat Mar 19 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0930 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends off the coast of Africa near 08N13W to
02N20W. The ITCZ continues from 02N20W to 03S25W to 03S37W.
Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from
05S to 05N between 10W and 50W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends from the Florida panhandle to the Bay of
Campeche. Strong to near gale force winds are noted west of the
front over the far SW Gulf. Moderate to fresh winds are elsewhere
west of the front. East of the front, gentle to moderate winds
prevail. Seas are in the 4-7 ft range west of the front and 1-3 ft
east of the front.

For the forecast, the cold front will move E today, stall in the
SE Gulf Sun, then retreat northward as a warm front Mon. Fresh to
locally strong NW winds are expected behind the front in the
western Gulf today, with strong southerly winds expected for the
start of next week in association with the warm front over the
western and central Gulf. The next cold front may enter the NW
Gulf Tue.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Strong to near gale force winds prevail over the south central
Caribbean. Fresh to strong winds are noted elsewhere over the
central and eastern Caribbean. Moderate to fresh winds prevail
over the western Caribbean. Seas are in the 8-10 ft range over the
south central Caribbean, and 5-8 ft over the remainder of the
central Caribbean as well as the eastern Caribbean. Over the
western Caribbean, seas are in the 4-7 ft range.

For the forecast, high pressure north of the area will support
mainly fresh trade winds along with large trade- wind swell across
the Tropical Atlantic forecast zones through the forecast period.
Fresh to strong winds will prevail across the central and eastern
Caribbean during this time. A weak cold front may approach the
Yucatan Channel this weekend.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough extends from near 31N66W to 29N73W. High pressure
prevails elsewhere. Gentle to moderate winds prevail north of 22N
with fresh to strong winds south of 22N. Seas of 4-6 ft are noted
north of 22N and west of 50W. South of 22N, seas are in the 7-9
ft range, reaching 10 ft east of the windward islands. Northerly
swell has propagated into the waters north of 25N between 25W and
50W, with seas peaking near 15 ft near 31N31W.

For the forecast W of 65W, the ridge of high pressure across the
area will support pulsing of fresh to strong winds north of
Hispaniola tonight. The ridge will start to retreat eastward
today, enabling a cold front to move off the coast of Florida. The
front will shift eastward, reaching from near Bermuda to the
Florida Straits by Mon.

$$
AL
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