[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 190537
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Sat Mar 19 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0520 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the southern coastal sections of
Sierra Leone, just away from the border with Liberia, to 03N17W
and 02N20W. The ITCZ continues from 02N20W, crossing the Equator
along 21W, to 03S26 and 04S24W. Precipitation: scattered moderate
to widely scattered strong is from 02N southward between 40W and
50W. Isolated moderate to locally strong is elsewhere 08N
southward.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front passes through coastal SE Mississippi, to 28N90W in
the north central Gulf of Mexico, to 23N95W. The front becomes
stationary, from 23N95W, to a 1009 mb low pressure center that is
near 21N96W. A cold front continues from the 1009 mb low pressure
center, to the northern part of the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of
southern Mexico. Precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered
clouds and isolated moderate rainshowers, are to the northwest of
the line that passes through the Florida Panhandle, to 26N90W, to
18N93W. A cold front is moving through the northern sections of
Florida, from 29N to 30N between NE Florida and the Florida Big
Bend. Broken to overcast multilayered clouds and isolated moderate
rainshowers are elsewhere from 28N northward. Fresh northerly
winds are from the cold front northward from 93W westward. Strong
to near gale-force N and NW winds are from the frontal boundary
westward from 19N to 20N.

Moderate or slower wind speeds cover the remainder of the Gulf of
Mexico. The sea heights range from 3 feet to 5 feet from 89W
westward. The sea heights range from 2 feet to 4 feet elsewhere.

A cold front, extending from near the Alabama and Mississippi
border to the Bay of Campeche, will move E through the Gulf Sat,
stall in the SE Gulf Sun, and then move northward as a warm front
Mon. Fresh to locally strong NW winds are expected behind the
front in the western Gulf tonight and Sat, with strong southerly
winds expected for the start of next week in association with the
warm front that is in the western and central Gulf. The next cold
front may enter the NW Gulf Tue.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Fresh NE-to-E winds are from 78W eastward. Moderate or slower wind
speeds are elsewhere. The sea heights range from 6 feet to 9 feet
from 11N to 18N from 80W eastward. The sea heights range from 4
feet to 6 feet elsewhere, The exceptions are in the lee of Cuba,
and in the Windward Passage, with sea heights ranging from 1 foot
to 3 feet.

Isolated to scattered passing rainshowers, are in areas of low
level moisture in the trade wind flow, throughout the Caribbean
Sea.

High pressure north of the area will support mainly fresh trade
winds, and large trade wind swell, in the Tropical Atlantic Ocean
forecast zones through the forecast period. Fresh to strong winds
will prevail in the central and eastern Caribbean Sea during this
time. Fresh to strong E to SE winds will pulse in the Gulf of
Honduras tonight. A weak cold front may approach the Yucatan
Channel this weekend.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front passes through 31N80W, to NE Florida, to the Florida
Big Bend. The front continues as stationary, northwestward, from
the Florida Big Bend into SE Alabama. Precipitation: scattered
moderate to widely scattered strong is from 28N northward from 78W
westward.

A dissipating cold front passes through 31N66W to 28N75W.
Precipitation: isolated moderate rainshowers are within 60 nm on
either side of the dissipating cold front.

Fresh NE winds are: from 16N to 27N from 25W eastward, from 10N
northward between 25W and 36W, from 03N to 28N between 36W and
48W, and from 23N southward between 48W and 60W. Moderate winds
or slower are in the remainder of the Atlantic Ocean. The sea
heights range from 7 feet to 9 feet from 24N southward from 42W
eastward. The sea heights range from 8 feet to 9 feet from 20N
southward between 42W and 50W. The sea heights range from 6 feet
to 8 feet elsewhere from 20N to 30N from 50W eastward. The sea
heights range from 10 feet to 12 feet from 30N northward between
30W and 50W, and from 6 feet to 8 feet from 30N northward from 30W
eastward. The sea heights range from 6 feet to 8 feet from 23N
southward between 60W and 70W. The sea heights range from 4 feet
to 7 feet elsewhere from 50W westward. The sea heights range from
8 feet to 11 feet, from 31N28W 30N32W 28N43W northward. The sea
heights range from 5 feet to 7 feet in the remainder of the
Atlantic Ocean.

A second dissipating cold front passes through 31N25W to 27N33W
to 24N42W. Precipitation: rainshowers are possible within 60 nm on
either side of the second dissipating front.

A ridge of high pressure across the area will support pulsing of
fresh to strong winds to the north of Hispaniola into early next
week. As the ridge retreats eastward, a cold front will move off
the coast of Florida Sat, and reach from near Bermuda to the
Florida Straits by Mon.

$$
MT
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