[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 141025
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Mon Mar 14 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the coast of Senegal
from 13N17W to 03N25W. The ITCZ continues from 03N25W to 01S40W.
Scattered moderate convection is observed from 03N to 05N between
09W and 12W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge reaches from 1032 mb high pressure over the
western Atlantic near 33N70W to the north coast of Texas. This
pattern is supporting moderate to fresh easterly winds south of
25N, with 5 to 7 ft combined seas including a component of
northerly swell, reaching to 8 ft over the Yucatan Channel.
Gentle to moderate easterly winds and 3 to 5 ft seas are noted
north of 25N. No significant shower or thunderstorm activity is
evident.

For the forecast, the ridge extending from high pressure off the
Carolinas to the coast of Texas will continue to dominate the
Gulf through early Tue evening. Winds and seas will diminish
across the basin through today. Fresh E to SE return flow will
set up over the Gulf in advance of the next cold front, which
will enter the far NW Gulf late tonight into early Tue, and reach
from the western Florida panhandle to the eastern Bay of Campeche
by late Tue. Fresh winds accompanying this front will diminish
through mid week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A shear line extends from east-central Cuba across Grand Cayman
Island to the Gulf of Honduras. Fresh to strong NE winds are noted
north of the shear line, with 5 to 8 ft seas. The strongest winds
are in the lee of Cuba. High pressure north of the area off the
Carolinas is also supporting strong winds off Colombia, with
moderate to fresh winds elsewhere. Fresh NE winds are impacting
the Windward Passage. Seas are 5 to 7 ft south of the shear line.
Recent observations also show fresh to strong NE to E winds across
the far northeast Caribbean. A few showers and thunderstorms are
active along the shear line over the Gulf of Honduras, but no
significant convection is evident elsewhere.

For the forecast, the stationary front/shearline extending from
east-central Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras is dissipating. High
pressure building eastward N of the area will cause increasing
trade winds and building seas for the east and central Caribbean
through mid week. Looking ahead, a cold front moving across the
Gulf of Mexico will stall and dissipate near the Yucatan Channel
Wed evening. Expect fresh to strong E to SE winds off Honduras by
late Thu. Large trade-wind swell will persist east of the Lesser
Antilles through late Thu.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front extends across the western North Atlantic,
crossing 31N at 57W and extending to eastern Cuba. 1032 mb high
pressure is analyzed north of the front between the Carolina
coast and Bermuda. Fresh to occasionall strong NE winds are
evident within 120 nm west of the front, to include across the
central Bahamas. Seas are 8 to 12 ft west of the front over open
waters to about 75W. Seas are 5 to 7 ft west of 75W to the coast
of Florida. Farther west, a ridge extends from 1032 mb high
pressure near the Azores Islands, it reaches southwest to 29N60W.
The ridge is supporting a large area of fresh to strong trade
winds south of 25N with 8 to 10 ft seas in E swell. This
encompasses the entire tropical north Atlantic, from the coast of
Africa to the Lesser Antilles. Fresh to strong N winds and 8t o 10
ft seas are following a cold front moving into the waters from
Morocco to the Canary Islands.

For the forecast west of 65W, the stalled front will start to lift
north today and dissipate through tonight. Rough seas in NW swell
are expected to linger through early this week northeast of the
Bahamas, then slowly subside through mid week. Large E swell will
persist east of the Leeward and Windward Islands through late Thu.

$$
Christensen
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