[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 132312
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Mon Mar 14 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2310 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the coast of Sierra
Leone near 08N13W to 01N25W. The ITCZ continues from 01N25W to
01N36W to 01S48W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is observed from 07S to 07N and E of 31W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Strong high pressure over southern Georgia extends a ridge
southward, covering most of the basin, and providing moderate to
locally fresh NE to E winds E of 90W and E to SE winds of the same
magnitude over the western half of the gulf. Seas are 3-4 ft N of
27N and 5-8 ft elsewhere with the highest seas being in the Bay
of Campeche and SE gulf.

For the forecast, winds and seas will continue to diminish across
the basin through Mon. Fresh E to SE return flow will set up over
the Gulf in advance of the next cold front forecast to enter the
far NW Gulf late Mon night into early Tue. The front will then reach
from the western Florida panhandle to the eastern Bay of Campeche
by late Tue. Fresh winds accompanying this front will diminish
through mid week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Fresh to strong NE winds and seas to 8 ft are over the NW
Caribbean behind a shear line, remnants of a stationary front,
that extends from eastern Cuba SW to the Gulf of Honduras.
Isolated showers are being reported to the west of this feature
while middle level divergent flow and high moisture over the
north-central Caribbean support a broad area of showers across
Hipaniola and adjacent waters. Otherwise, fresh to locally strong
trades are prevalent in the eastern, central and SW Caribbean,
with the strongest winds occurring offshore NW Colombia where seas
are in the 5-7 ft range.

For the forecast, a shear line extending from eastern Cuba to the
Gulf of Honduras will gradually dissipate through Mon. High
pressure building north of the area in the wake of a former front
will allow increased trade winds and building seas over the
eastern and central Caribbean tonight through mid week. Looking
ahead, a second cold front will stall and dissipate across the
Yucatan Channel by late Wed. Expect fresh to strong E to SE winds
off Honduras by late Thu. Otherwise, large E swell will persist
east of the Leeward and Windward Islands through late Thu.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 31N60W to eastern Cuba with fresh to
strong winds and rough seas on either side of it as well as along
the Great Bahama Bank. Seas are 8-13 ft NE of the Bahamas. The
rest of the Atlantic is dominated by strong high pressure centered
near the Azores Islands and a second center of high pressure near
32N42W. The pressure gradient between the associated ridge and
lower pressures in the deep tropics results in fresh to locally
strong winds S of 25N and between Africa and the Lesser Antilles.
Seas are 8-10 ft in this wide region. Fresh to strong NE winds are
also W of the Canary Islands to 30W due to a strong pressure
gradient between the area of high pressure and the tail of a front
just W of Portugal. Seas are in the 8 to 11 ft in that region or
NE Atlantic high seas.

For the forecast west of 65W, the cold front will stall across
the waters E of the Bahamas by this evening, then lift north and
dissipate through Mon. A wide-band of about 120nm of fresh to
strong NE winds will persist just behind the front on Mon. Rough
seas in NW swell are expected to linger through early this week
northeast of the Bahamas, then slowly subside through mid week.
Large E swell will persist east of the Leeward and Windward
Islands through late Thu.

$$
Ramos
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