[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 131640
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Sun Mar 13 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1635 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the coast of Sierra
Leone near 08N13W to 01N25W. The ITCZ continues from 01N25W to
01N36W to 01S48W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is observed from 07S to 07N and E of 31W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Dry continental air dominates the Gulf of Mexico under a strong
ridge positioned over the Mississippi Valley. This environment
fosters a shield of stratocumulus clouds that fills most of the
basin. Latest scatterometer wind data and surface observations
indicate that fresh to locally strong NE winds prevail E of 90W,
with the strongest winds occurring offshore NW Cuba. Moderate or
weaker anticyclonic winds are present in the rest of the gulf.
Seas greater than 8 ft are found S of 28N in the eastern gulf and
S of 25N in the central and western gulf. An altimeter pass from
this morning captured seas up to 10 ft in the Florida Straits. The
highest seas, up to 13 ft, are occurring at the entrance of the
Yucatan Channel and central Bay of Campeche.

For the forecast, high pressure over the SE of the United States
dominates the Gulf waters. The pressure gradient between this
system and a cold front over the Caribbean Sea supports fresh to
strong NE winds and rough seas across much of the eastern and SW
Gulf. Winds and seas will diminish through late today as the high
pressure shifts eastward into the western Atlantic. Fresh E to SE
winds return flow will set up over the Gulf in advance of the next
cold front. This cold front is expected to enter the far NW Gulf
late Mon night into early Tue, and reach from the western Florida
panhandle to the eastern Bay of Campeche by late Tue. Fresh winds
accompanying this front will diminish through mid week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A weakening cold front extends from central Cuba to Belize and
only a few shallow showers are noted near the boundary. Recent
scatterometer wind data and surface observations depict fresh to
locally strong NE winds behind the frontal boundary. Seas are 7-13
ft W of the front, with the highest seas occurring in the Yucatan
Channel. Farther east, a weak surface trough is found along 71W
from 14N- 20W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 120
nm ahead and behind the trough. Fresh to locally strong trades are
prevalent in the eastern, central and SW Caribbean, with the
strongest winds occurring offshore NW Colombia. Seas are 4-8 ft in
these areas.

For the forecast, a cold front extending from eastern Cuba to the
Gulf of Honduras will stall tonight then dissipate through Mon.
High pressure building north of the area in the wake of the front
will allow increased trade winds and building seas over the
eastern and central Caribbean tonight through mid week. Looking
ahead, a second cold front will stall and dissipate across the
Yucatan Channel by late Wed. Expect fresh to strong E to SE winds
off Honduras by late Thu. Large E swell will persist east of the
Leeward and Windward Islands through late Thu.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front enters the tropical Atlantic near 31N65W and
continues southwestward across the eastern Bahamas and into
central Cuba. Cloudiness and light showers are noted within 120
nm W of the frontal boundary. Winds behind the cold front have
dropped below gale force. Recent satellite-derived wind data show
fresh to locally strong N-NE winds, with the strongest winds
occurring in the central Bahamas and offshore central Cuba. Seas
behind the front remain greater than 8 ft, with wave heights of
12-14 ft occurring N of 29N and between 67W and 76W. The rest of
the Atlantic is dominated by a strong ridge over the central
Atlantic that maintains fairly tranquil weather conditions. The
pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressures in the
deep tropics result in fresh to locally strong winds S of 25N and
between Africa and the Lesser Antilles. Seas are 7-10 ft in this
region. Moderate or weaker winds and seas of 4-7 ft are prevalent
elsewhere.

For the forecast west of 65W, a cold front extends from near
Bermuda to eastern Cuba. Fresh to strong winds and rough seas are
on either side of the front. Winds will diminish through this
afternoon as the front continues to move to the southeast. The
front will stall across the waters E of the Bahamas by this
evening, then will lift north and dissipate through Mon. Rough
seas in NW swell are expected to linger through early this week
northeast of the Bahamas, then slowly subside through mid week.
Large E swell will persist east of the Leeward and Windward
Islands through late Thu.

$$
DELGADO
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