[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 111042
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Fri Mar 11 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1030 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A strong cold front will enter the
NW Gulf of Mexico Fri evening. Gale-force winds will develop in
the NW Gulf on Fri night and continue across the western Gulf
along the Mexican coast and the north-central Gulf coast as the
front quickly moves eastward. Seas will build 8-15 ft across the
northern Gulf with 10-18 ft in the southwest Gulf on Sat. Winds
will diminish on Sun, with wave heights subsiding by early Mon as
high pressure in the wake of the front shifts eastward.

Atlantic Gale Warning: A strong cold front will enter the sub-
tropical western Atlantic mid-day on Sat. Gale-force SW winds
will begin to develop in the waters north of 30N Sat morning. As
the front passes, winds will shift to the west to northwest,
while maintaining gale strength through Sat night. Wave heights
will build to the range of 12-16 ft north of 28N and west of 60W.
Winds will diminish early on Sun with wave heights subsiding
early on Mon. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast
issued by the National Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis extends into the eastern Atlantic from
the coast of Sierra Leone near 08N13W and southwest to 01N17W,
where overnight scatterometer data indicates that it transitions
to the ITCZ to below the equator at 18W and extends to 01S30W and
to the coast of Brazil near 03S41W. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is within 180 nm north of the ITCZ between
30W-41W. Scattered moderate convection is within 30 nm of a line
from 02N21W to 01N30W, and also south of the Equator between 11W-
21W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

See the Special Features section for more information on a
Gale Warning that applies to just about the entire basin.

Broad troughing extends across the northern Gulf along the
remnants of an old stationary front. Isolated showers and
thunderstorms are observed over the NE Gulf north of 27N and
east of 88W. Marine conditions are generally favorable throughout
the basin, with gentle to moderate winds. Wave heights are in the
range of 2-4 ft, except for slighter higher wave heights of 3-5 ft
over the central and eastern Gulf areas.

As for the forecast, the trough will slowly dissipate through
early this afternoon. Fresh southerly winds are expected to
develop in the central Gulf on Fri ahead of a strong cold front
expected to enter the NW Gulf Fri evening. Gale-force winds and
very rough seas are expected in the wake of the front over the
western and north-central portion of the Gulf waters Fri night and
Sat. Strong to near gale-force winds and rough seas will follow
this front across the rest of the basin through Sat night. High
pressure in the wake of the front will then shift eastward through
Mon, allowing for fresh east to southeast return flow to set up
over the Gulf in advance of the next cold front. This cold front
is expected to enter the far NW Gulf late Mon night, and reach
from the western Florida panhandle to the eastern Bay of Campeche
by late Tue. Fresh winds will precede and follow this front.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

High pressure ridging north of the area is maintaining generally
moderate to fresh easterly flow across the basin. Strong winds are
noted near Colombia and in the Gulf of Honduras. The observed
wave height state reveals ranges of 4-7 ft, except for lower
wave heights of 3-4 ft over the section of the sea north of 18N
between 76W-85W. Higher wave heights of 6-8 ft are between 64W-
72W.

Patches of low-level moisture moving westward with the trade wind
are noted over the eastern part of the sea and over the northern
part of the central section of the sea. Isolated to scattered
showers are possible with these moisture patches.

As for the forecast, high pressure north of the area will
continue to support fresh to strong trade winds in the south-
central Caribbean through Fri night. Fresh to locally strong winds
will end in the Gulf of Honduras by Sat morning. A cold front is
expected to move across the Yucatan Channel into the NW Caribbean
Sat evening, bringing fresh to strong winds and building wave
heights to the area. Otherwise, fresh to locally strong trades
and northeast to east swell will continue to impact the waters
east of the Lesser Antilles into early next week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

See the Special Features section for more information on the Gale
Warning for part of the basin.

A surface trough is analyzed from 31N74W to the NW Bahamas. The
combination of this feature along with a shortwave trough in the
vicinity and ample available moisture is all supporting scattered
shower and thunderstorm activity that is moving eastward north of
30N and between 71W-78W. An overnight ASCAT pass noted moderate
to fresh southerly winds from about 27N to 31N between 75W-80W.
Fresh east winds are confined to south of 23N between 60W-75W.

In the central Atlantic, a 1029 mb high pressure center is near
30N46W. This feature continues to control the wind regime over the
Atlantic. Fresh to locally strong northeast to east winds are
noted from 10N to 25N, with lighter winds to the north and south.
Rough seas of 8-10 ft are observed within this region. Long
period swell is propagating into the central sub-tropical
Atlantic from storms farther north. An overnight altimeter data
pass revealed wave heights to 10 ft swell in the light winds near
the high pressure center.

As for the forecast west of 65W, fresh southerly winds will
prevail across the NE Florida waters tonight. Winds will increase
fresh to strong off the NE Florida coast Fri night ahead of a
strong cold front forecast to enter the SW N Atlantic on Sat. Gale
conditions are expected ahead and behind the front Sat and Sat
night. Rough seas are expected Sat through early next week.
Elsewhere, swell that has been impacting the offshore waters N of
Puerto Rico will subside today, but continue to impact the Lesser
Antilles into early next week as the swell is reinforced by
another set of swell.

$$
Aguirre
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