[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 071033
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Mon Mar 7 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends off the coast of Guinea near 10N14W
to 04N17W to 02N23W. The ITCZ continues from 02N23W to 00N40W to
01S45W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is
occurring south of 04N and E of 11W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Patchy marine fog is prevalent over portions of the northwest
Gulf of Mexico off the Texas and Louisiana coasts. The gradient
between a 1034 mb Bermuda High, centered east of Bermuda, and
much lower pressure over Mexico, is inducing moderate to fresh
SE winds across most of the Gulf of Mexico. Overnight ASCAT
satellite wind data shows strong E winds over the Straits of
Florida, while gentle winds are noted over the NE corner of the
Gulf of Mexico. Seas are 4-6 ft across most of the basin, except
up to 9 ft in the Straits of Florida.

For the forecast, the strong winds and rough seas in the SE Gulf
and Straits of Florida will improve by this morning as the high
pressure over the area begins to shift east. Patchy fog over the
northern Gulf will dissipate by this morning. A cold front to move
into the NW Gulf this afternoon. Fresh to strong winds are
expected behind the front through tonight. The front will stall
from the Florida Panhandle to the Bay of Campeche by tonight and
linger across the area through midweek. The front will gradually
dissipate by Thu. Fresh to strong winds will prevail west of the
front Mon and Tue.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

No major precipitation areas are noted over the basin. However,
isolated trade wind showers are seen from the northern Leeward
Islands to Puerto Rico, as well as near Haiti, and to the south
of eastern and central Cuba. Overnight ASCAT satellite wind data
showed fresh trades over the eastern and central Caribbean.
Strong winds are likely occurring in the Windward Passage, to the
south of Hispaniola, near the coast of Colombia and in the Gulf
of Venezuela. ASCAT showed mainly moderate E winds in the western
Caribbean, west of 78W. Seas are likely averaging 6 to 8 ft
across the eastern and central Caribbean and 4-6 ft in the NW
Caribbean.

For the forecast, high pressure north of the area will support fresh
to strong trade winds in the south-central Caribbean through the
forecast period. Fresh to strong winds will prevail in the
Windward Passage through tonight. Fresh to strong winds are
expected south of Hispaniola through early Tue. Moderate to fresh
trades, along with 8 to 9 ft seas in persistent northeast to east
swell, will continue to impact the waters east of the Lesser
Antilles through at least Fri.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The weather is dominated by a 1032 mb high pressure centered
east of Bermuda near 33N60W. Surface ridging extends WSW from the
high to northern Florida, with mainly moderate anticyclonic winds
north of 27N and west of 65W. Overnight ASCAT satellite wind data
showed strong trades south of 26N and west of 65W, including over
the Straits of Florida, SE Bahamas and central Bahamas. Seas of
8-11 ft are likely occurring in this area, east of the Bahamas.
NOAA buoy 41046 near 23.8N and 68.4W is reporting E winds of 20
kt and significant wave heights of 10 ft.

Over the central Atlantic, a cold front stretches from 31N36W to
28N48W. A shear line continues from 28N48W to 24N63W. Isolated
showers are within 100 nm either side of the cold front and shear
line. ASCAT showed strong NE winds within 210 nm northwest of the
shear line, where seas are likely 8-10 ft. Gentle anticyclonic
winds prevail north of 27N and east of the cold front to 18W, due
to surface ridging in the area. Seas of 4-7 ft are likely in the
gentle wind area. Fresh to locally strong trade winds are noted
from about 06N-24N between Africa and the Lesser Antilles, where
seas are in the 7-10 ft range.

For the forecast west of 65W, high pressure over the western
Atlantic will shift eastward and gradually weaken the next couple
of days. This will diminish the strong easterly winds and easterly
swell over most of the forecast waters through tonight. Moderate
to locally fresh winds are expected to continue through midweek.
Moderate to fresh southerly flow will prevail east of Florida
Monday through the end of the week.

$$
AReinhart
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