[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 060403
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0330 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea near
09.5N13.5W to 02N22W. The ITCZ continues from 02N22W to 00N35W
to the coast of Brazil near 02S45W. Isolated moderate convection
is within 60 nm either side of the monsoon trough east of 18W.
Scattered moderate convection is noted south of 01N between
24W-32W and from 00N-05N between 42W-51W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

The gradient between 1034 mb high pressure over the western
Atlantic near 35N69W and much lower pressure over Mexico is
producing moderate to fresh SE winds across most of the Gulf of
Mexico. However, fresh to strong E winds are occurring over the
Florida Straits and far SE Gulf of Mexico, as well as near the N
coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. Seas are 6-9 ft over the Florida
Straits and SE Gulf. Seas are 3-6 ft elsewhere.

For the forecast, high pressure will prevail over Gulf basin
through the remainder of the weekend. Patchy fog has developed
across the NW Gulf. Areas of dense marine fog are possible near
the Texas and Louisiana coasts through Mon morning. Fresh to
strong winds with seas to 9 ft will prevail over the SE Gulf
this weekend, including the Straits of Florida. Fresh southerly
return flow will develop over the NW Gulf through tonight ahead
of the next cold front. The cold front is expected to move into
the NW Gulf on Mon and stall from the Florida Panhandle to the
Bay of Campeche through Wed night. Fresh to strong winds will
prevail west of the front Tue and Wed.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Satellite imagery and Puerto Rico radar show a few showers
between Puerto Rico and Hispaniola, and to the south of the Mona
Passage. No major precipitation areas are noted over the
remainder of the basin. Recent scatterometer data shows mainly
fresh trades over the eastern and central Caribbean, with strong
NE winds over the Windward Passage, near the coast of Colombia
and to the south of Hispaniola. Strong winds are also likely
occurring in the lee of Cuba. Seas of 5-7 are prevalent across
most of the Caribbean, but may be as high as 9 ft in the
Windward Passage.

High pressure north of the area will support fresh to strong
trade winds in the south-central Caribbean through the forecast
period. Fresh to strong winds will prevail in the Windward
Passage through Mon night. Fresh to strong winds are expected in
the lee of Cuba through tonight and south of the Dominican
Republic through Mon night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A strong 1034 mb high pressure is N of the area near 35N69W. A
surface trough extends over the central Atlantic from 31N49W to
28N55W. A shear line is analyzed from 28N55W to 23N67W.
Scattered moderate convection is along and within 180 nm NW of
the shear line and surface trough. The latest ASCAT satellite
wind data shows strong to near gale force NE to E winds over a
large area, mainly west of a line from 26N60W to the Windward
Passage. These wind speeds extend westward over the Bahamas and
Florida Straits. To the north of 28.5N, fresh anticyclonic winds
prevail. Seas of 8-12 ft prevail east of the Bahamas, within the
strong to near-gale force area, and 6-8 ft elsewhere west of 60W.

The remainder of the Atlantic is dominated by 1029 mb high
pressure near 32N32W. Gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds
prevail north of 27N between 20W-55W, due to ridging from the
high pressure. To the south, a large area of strong trades
prevail from 05N-20N between the Cabo Verde Islands and 55W.
Strong to near gale force NE winds prevail off Morocco and
through the Canary Islands. Seas are generally 8-11 ft across
these strong wind areas.

For the forecast, high pressure will strengthen over the western
Atlantic through today. This will continue to support strong
easterly winds over most of the forecast waters west of 65W,
especially from the Greater Antilles to 27N. Seas are expected
to build to 13 ft east of the Bahamas early today and persist
through tonight. Conditions will start to improve on Mon as the
high pressure shifts eastward and gradually weakens. Fresh
southerly flow will develop east of northern Florida today into
the middle of next week. For the area east of the Lesser
Antilles to 55W, moderate to fresh trades and 8 to 9 ft seas, in
persistent northeast to east swell, will continue through at
least Thu.

$$
Hagen
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