[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 050419
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0400 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

East Atlantic Gale Warning: Strong high pressure centered south
of the Azores will continue to induce gale force northerly winds
offshore of Morocco through at least 1200 UTC today in the
marine zones Agadir and Tarfaya. Seas are up to 13-16 ft in the
area. Please see the latest High Seas Forecast from Meteo-France
at http://weather.gmdss.org/II.html for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis extends from the border of Sierra Leone
and Guinea near 09N14W to 09N16W to 04N19W. The ITCZ continues
from 04N19W to 01N30W to 00N42W to the coast of Brazil near
01S47W. Scattered moderate convection is seen south of 07N
between 25W and the coast of South America.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Surface ridging remains in place across the Gulf, with a 1024 mb
high pressure centered near the Florida Panhandle, keeping
tranquil conditions in place. Fresh to strong NE to E trade
winds are noted in the Florida Straits. Seas have recently built
to 3-5 ft across the Florida Straits and Yucatan Channel.
Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds and seas of 1-3 ft prevail,
except for light to gentle in the NE Gulf.

For the forecast, high pressure will continue over the Gulf
basin. Fresh to strong winds will continue over the SE Gulf
today, including the Straits of Florida. Seas will build to 8 to
10 ft across the SE Gulf waters. Fresh southerly return flow
will develop over the NW Gulf through Sun night. A cold front is
expected to move into the NW Gulf on Mon and reach from the
Florida Panhandle to the Bay of Campeche Wed night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Mid-level anticyclonic flow covers most the basin, which is
inducing subsidence and relatively dry conditions for most
areas. However, isolated moderate convection is noted near
Hispaniola, and a few light showers are possible near eastern
Cuba as well. A recent ASCAT pass shows fresh to strong NE winds
within 60 nm of the south coast of Cuba between 77W-83W. Seas
are currently building to 4-5 ft in this area. Fresh winds are
noted in the south-central Caribbean, with locally strong near
the coast of Colombia, where seas are 5-7 ft. Mainly moderate
trades prevail elsewhere across the Caribbean. Seas are around
5-6 ft over the eastern Caribbean, and near 2-4 ft for the
remainder of the NW Caribbean.

For the forecast, building high pressure over the western
Atlantic will support fresh to strong trade winds in the
south-central Caribbean through the forecast period. Fresh to
strong winds are also expected in the Windward Passage through
Mon night. Strong winds are expected in the lee of Cuba and the
Dominican Republic Sat night through Sun night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front extends from 31N54W to 25N63W. Scattered
moderate convection is seen along and within 120 nm NW of the
front. Broad upper-level troughing is noted over the western
Atlantic. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 20N-30N
between 63W-74W, enhanced by upper-level diffluence to the east
of the upper-trough. Recent scatterometer data shows moderate
winds north of 28N over the western Atlantic. Seas are 3-6 ft in
this area. However, fresh to strong winds are prevalent south of
27N to the coasts of Cuba and Haiti, between 65W and the Florida
Straits, where seas are quickly building now to 5-7 ft. These
winds are occurring due to a strong pressure gradient in between
a 1034 mb high pressure near the coast of New Jersey and a 1008
mb low pressure over Colombia.

The eastern half of the Atlantic Ocean is dominated by a strong
1032 mb high pressure centered near 34N28W. The tight gradient
attributed to this high center supports a large area of fresh to
strong northeast to east winds from the ITCZ to 24N between
30W-57W, and from 10N-31N, east of 30W, as noted in recent ASCAT
wind data. Recent altimeter passes show seas of 10-11 ft in this
area, from 10N-23N between 25W-40W. The atmosphere is very dry
and stable over the eastern Atlantic. An extensive area of
African dust is observed over the far eastern Atlantic on
satellite imagery.

For the forecast W of 65W, high pressure will build over the
western Atlantic this weekend. This will lead to a tight
gradient which will bring strong easterly winds over most of the
forecast waters today and Sun. Seas are expected to build to 13
ft east of the Bahamas starting tonight and continuing through
Sun night. Conditions will improve on Mon as the high pressure
shifts eastward and gradually weakens. Fresh southerly flow will
develop east of northern Florida Sun into early next week.

For the forecast east of 65W, moderate to fresh trades along
with persistent northeast to east swell will continue to impact
the waters east of the Lesser Antilles to 55W through at least
Wed. Seas will range between 8 to 9 ft in this area. Elsewhere,
the large area of fresh to strong trades and large seas over the
eastern half of the Atlantic will improve slightly late Sun into
Mon.

$$
Hagen
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