[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 040004
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Fri Mar 04 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2345 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coastal plains of Sierra
Leone near 06N10W to 04N16W and to 02N17W, where latest
scatterometer data indicates that it transitions to the ITCZ to
02N17W to 01S30W to 01S38W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is within 30 nm south of the trough between 12W-15W.
Scattered moderate convection is within 240 nm north of the ITCZ
between 29W-35W, within 180 nm north of the ITCZ between 35W-37W,
within 90 nm northwest of the trough between 16W-17W and within
30 nm south of the ITCZ between 17W-20W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Broad high pressure, with attendant high center of 1022 mb over
northern Alabama, covers the Gulf. The associated gradient is
allowing for light to gentle mainly northeast to east winds to
exist over the Gulf, with the exception of gentle to moderate
east winds in the eastern Bay of Campeche. Altimeter data passes
and buoy observations reveal wave heights in the range of 2-3 ft
throughout, except for slighter higher wave heights of 3-4 ft in
eastern Gulf and and eastern Bay of Campeche.

As for the forecast, the high pressure will maintain little
change little change to current conditions through Fri. The
pressure gradient is forecast to strengthen over the Gulf during
the upcoming weekend as the strong high pressure shifts over the
western Atlantic. This will bring fresh to strong east winds over
the southeastern Gulf, including the Straits of Florida, and
fresh southerly return flow over the NW Gulf through Sun night.
A cold front is forecast to move into the NW Gulf on Mon and
reach from Alabama to the western Gulf Tue morning.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The Atlantic trough extends south into the eastern Caribbean
from near the U.S. Virgin Islands south to 15N65W and to the
coast of Venezuela near 10N65W. A trough is noted at 700 mb near
the Atlantic trough. Patches of low-level moisture in the form
of broken to scattered low clouds with possible isolated
showers, are moving westward in the trade wind flow within 240 nm
west of the trough north of 13N and east of trough north of 12N,
reaching east to the Lesser Antilles. Similar type showers are
in the vicinity of Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands.

Scattered to broken low clouds and isolated showers moving to the
southwest are present over the western Caribbean south of 15N
and west of 78W and over some parts of the northwestern
Caribbean.

Fresh to strong northeast to east winds are in the south-central
Caribbean, including within 90 nm of coast of Colombia. Wave
heights there are in the 6-8 ft range. Gentle to moderate
northeast to east trade winds are evident over the remainder
of the sea. Wave heights elsewhere across the basin are in
the 3-6 ft range, except for higher wave heights of 5-7 ft
in the west-central Caribbean Sea, and lower wave heights of
2-4 ft north of 15N and west of 80W.

As for the forecast, building high pressure over the western
Atlantic will maintain fresh to strong trade winds in the central
Caribbean through at least Tue. Fresh to strong winds are also
expected in the Windward Passage Fri night through Mon night.
Fresh to strong winds are possible in the lee of Cuba and the
Dominican Republic Sat night through Sun night. Moderate to fresh
trade winds along with persistent northeast to east swell will
continue to impact the waters east of the Lesser Antilles through
at least Tue.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front is analyzed from near 31N54W to 25N60W. A trough
extends from 25N60W southwestward to the northeastern Caribbean
Sea. A 1022 mb high center is located southwest of Bermuda near
31N65W. High pressure is west of the front. Satellite imagery
shows broken to overcast mostly low and mid clouds, with possible
isolated showers within 90 nm west of the trough from 20N to 25N
and within 60 nm east of the trough from 21N to 25N. Broken low
and mid-level clouds, with possible isolated showers are within
60 nm of the cold front from 25N to 27N, and along and within 60
nm east of the front from 27N to 31N. Gentle to moderate east
winds are west of front and trough. Moderate to fresh southwest
winds are ahead of the front to near 45W and north of 28N. The
wave heights are peaking to 7 ft north of 30N and east of the
front to near 51W.

Over the western Atlantic, a trough extends from near 31N73W
southwest to inland Florida near Fort Pierce. No significant
convection is noted with this trough.

In the far eastern Atlantic, strong high pressure of 1032 mb is
centered just north of the area near 32N29W. A ridge extends
from this high center west-southwest to 29N47W. A tight gradient
between this high and relatively lower pressure to the south is
sustaining a large area of fresh to strong east winds south of
about 23N and east of 61W. Wave heights with these winds are
in the 8-11 ft range. In the far northeast part of the area,
strong northeast winds are over and near the Canary Islands, and
south of the Islands to 20N between the coast of Africa and 25W.

As for the forecast W of 65W, the aforementioned cold front
will become stationary and weaken over the central Atlantic by
tonight. Strong high pressure will then build over the western
Atlantic during the upcoming weekend. This will lead to a tight
gradient which will bring fresh to strong easterly winds over
most of the forecast waters. Wave heights are also expected to
build to 12 ft east of the Bahamas by Sat night and continue
through Sun night. Conditions will improve on Mon as the high
pressure shifts eastward and gradually weakens. Fresh southerly
flow will develop east of northern Florida Sun into early next
week.

$$
Aguirre
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