[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 031000
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Thu Mar 3 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0945 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Sierra
Leone near 09N13W to 03N18W. The ITCZ continues from 03N18W to
01S37W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 01N to 04N
between 10W and 39W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

High pressure of 1023 mb is centered over the north-central Gulf
keeping anticyclonic flow in place over the basin. Moderate NE
winds are noted off the SE Florida coast in the SE Gulf and the
eastern Bay of Campeche, where seas are 2 to 4 ft. Recent buoy and
altimeter data note seas less than 3 ft elsewhere over the Gulf,
where winds are light to gentle.

For the forecast, the high pressure centered over the
north-central Gulf will control the weather pattern over the
region through the remainder of the week, resulting in gentle to
moderate northeast to east winds across the forecast waters. The
pressure gradient is forecast to strengthen over the Gulf during
the upcoming weekend as the high pressure shifts eastward into the
western Atlantic. This will bring fresh to occasionally strong
east winds over the southeastern Gulf, including the Straits of
Florida, and fresh southerly return flow over the NW Gulf through
Sun night. A cold front may move into the NW Gulf Mon and reach
from southeastern Louisiana to the western Gulf Mon night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A recent scatterometer satellite pass depicted fresh to strong
winds continuing off of Colombia in the south-central Caribbean.
Seas range between 8 to 9 ft with these winds. Gentle to moderate
trade winds prevail across the rest of the eastern and central
Caribbean. Gentle to moderate northerly winds are noted in the NW
basin. Seas are 3 to 5 ft in the eastern Caribbean, 4 to 7 ft in
the central basin, and 3 ft or less in the NW basin.

For the forecast, building high pressure over the western
Atlantic will maintain fresh to strong northeast to east trade
winds through Fri night, then expand in coverage over the central
Caribbean into next week. Moderate to fresh trades along with
persistent northeast to east swell will continue to impact the
waters east of the Lesser Antilles for the next several days.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 31N57W to 26N62W. A surface trough is
analyzed south of the front from 26N60W to 21N63W. A recent
satellite scatterometer pass revealed moderate W winds behind the
front, and fresh SW winds ahead of the front. Recent altimeter
data notes seas to 8 ft north of 30N and east of 60W associated
with the frontal boundary. High pressure building in the wake of
the front is allowing for gentle anticyclonic flow over the rest
of the western Atlantic, with moderate seas.

High pressure ridging extends across the central and eastern
Atlantic anchored by a 1034 mb high near 38N27W. Gentle to
moderate winds are noted north of 29N and E of 43W with seas 5 to
7 ft. Fresh to strong easterly winds are noted S of 29N and E of
the Lesser Antilles with seas 8 to 11 ft in northeast-east swell.
Strong NE winds are noted over the Canary Islands, and south of
the Islands to 20N between the coast of Africa and 25W.

For the forecast W of 65W, the cold front in the w-central
Atlantic will stall and weaken over the southeast and south-
central waters through Fri night as high pressure builds behind
it. Stronger high pressure will then build over the western
Atlantic during the upcoming weekend, with the resultant tight
gradient leading to fresh to strong easterly winds over most of
the forecast waters. Seas will build to around 11 ft east of the
Bahamas by Sat night with the increasing easterly flow. Conditions
improve early next week as the high pressure shifts eastward and
gradually weakens. Fresh southerly flow will develop east of
northern Florida Sun into early next week.

$$
ERA
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