[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 011756
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Tue Mar 01 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1745 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Atlantic Ocean Gale-Force Wind Warning:

Gale-force winds have been to the west and southwest of a 1013
mb 31N78W low pressure center. The current forecast indicates
that the wind speeds will slow down, soon, and be less than
gale-force later into this afternoon. These are the conditions
to expect, starting at 01/1200 UTC, for the next six hours: N to
NE gale-force winds, and sea heights that range from 9 feet to
13 feet, from 30N northward between 72W and 75W. Elsewhere from
OF 30N northward from the front to 77W...expect NE winds from 20
knots to 25 knots, and sea heights that range from 8 feet to 11
feet. For the remainder of the area that is to the north of the
line  31N68W 30N75W 29N77W 30N80W: winds 20 knots or less. The
sea heights will range from 8 feet to 10 feet in N to NE swell.
Expect scattered thunderstorms to the east of the front, from
28N northward between 67W and 72W. Please read the latest High
Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center, at the
website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more
details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Sierra
Leone near 05N09W, and it continues to 03N12W. The ITCZ
continues from 03N12W, to 01N15W. The ITCZ continues along
01N/02N from 15W to 35W. Precipitation: scattered moderate to
widely scattered strong is from 02N to 05N between 06W and 14W,
and from 04N southward between 30W and 36W. Isolated moderate is
elsewhere from 08N southward.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front passes through the Straits of Florida, to the
coast of NW Cuba, to the coast of the NE Yucatan Peninsula. A
surface trough continues from the NE Yucatan Peninsula, curving
into the northern sections of the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of
southern Mexico. Precipitation: rain is possible, from 29N
southward, in the broken to overcast multilayered clouds. NW
winds of 15 knots to 20 knots, and sea heights that range from 6
feet to 7 feet, are in the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico.

A surface ridge extends from a southern Louisiana 1026 mb high
pressure center, to the western sections of the Isthmus of
Tehuantepec of southern Mexico.

Expect mainly moderate northerly winds, and sea heights that
range from 4 feet to 6 feet, in the central Gulf of Mexico.

High pressure centered over eastern Texas will control the
weather regime in the region through the remainder of the week.
The result will be gentle to moderate northeast to east winds in
the forecast waters. The pressure gradient is forecast to
strengthen in the Gulf of Mexico during the upcoming weekend, as
the high pressure shifts eastward to the eastern Gulf. This will
bring fresh east winds over the southeastern Gulf, including the
Straits of Florida, and fresh southerly return flow in the
NW Gulf.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The western Atlantic Ocean intensifying low pressure center has
weakened the surface pressure gradient in the Caribbean Sea.
Fresh trade winds are in the south central Caribbean Sea, near
the coast of Colombia, and in the Gulf of Venezuela. Gentle to
moderate trade winds cover the remainder of the E and central
sections of the basin. Moderate northerly winds are in the
Yucatan Channel, and extending southward along the Yucatan
peninsula to 19N. The sea heights in this area range from 4 feet
to 5 feet. The sea heights range from 4 feet to 6 feet in the
eastern and central sections of the Caribbean Sea. The sea
heights range from 1 foot to 3 feet elsewhere.

Patches of low level moisture, that are embedded in the trade
wind flow, span the Caribbean Sea. The comparatively greatest
concentration of the low level moisture is in the central
Caribbean Sea, and in the Gulf of Honduras. Multilayered clouds,
and possible rainshowers, associated with strong upper level
westerly winds, continue to affect the Windward Islands.

Intensifying low pressure in the western Atlantic Ocean has
weakened the pressure gradient across the Caribbean Sea. The
result is that mainly fresh to occasionally strong trade winds
will prevail near the coast of Colombia this week. Moderate to
fresh trades along with persistent NE to E swell will continue
to impact the waters east of the Lesser Antilles for the next
several days.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about the
gale-force wind forecast, for the next six hours or so.

A surface ridge extends from a 1030 mb high pressure center that
is near 32N30W, to 28N42W 26N51W, to the eastern half of
Hispaniola. Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the
Atlantic Ocean from 68W eastward.

Fresh to strong NE winds are within 2000 nm to the west of
Africa from 02N northward. Moderate winds or slower are
elsewhere, and away from the western Atlantic Ocean frontal
boundary. The sea heights range from 10 feet to 12 feet from 11N
northward from 30W eastward. The sea heights range from 9 feet
to 10 feet, elsewhere, from 50W eastward. The sea heights range
from 4 feet to 7 feet in the remainder of the Atlantic Ocean.

The current stationary front extends from a 1013 mb low pressure
center near 31N76W to the NW Bahamas and Straits of Florida. The
low pressure center is producing gale force winds and building
seas mainly N of 31N. The low will track NE today, with the
associated cold front reaching from near 31N72W to the central
Bahamas and to central Cuba this afternoon and from near 31N69W
to 27N72W and to eastern Cuba early tonight. Gale force winds
west of the front to 75W and N of 30N will shift NE of the area
this afternoon. Strong high pressure will build across the
western Atlantic in the wake of the front, with the pressure
gradient between it and a weakening cold front that will move S
into the area leading to fresh to strong easterly winds in most
of the forecast waters by this weekend. Seas will build E of the
Bahamas on Sat with the increasing easterly flow.

$$
MT/JA
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