[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 010405
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Fri Jul 1 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0400 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Potential Tropical Cyclone Two is centered along a tropical wave
near 11.8N 77.7W at 01/0300 UTC or 360 nm E of Bluefields
Nicaragua moving W at 18 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure
is 1005 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to
45 kt. Seas 12 ft or greater are within 180 nm from the center in
the northeastern quadrant, with peak seas of 15 ft. Scattered
moderate convection is noted from 10N to 15N between 73W and 82W.
A westward motion will bring the system across the southwestern
Caribbean Sea through Friday, crossing Central America Friday
night, and emerging over the eastern Pacific Ocean on Saturday.
The system is forecast to intensify through Friday with weakening
expected as the system crosses Central America. Please read the
latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center
at website:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest NHC
Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for
more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is in the E Atlantic near 29W, from
18N southward, moving west at 20 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is observed from 04N to 08N between 23W and 31W.

The axis of a strong tropical wave is near 56W, from 17N
southward, moving west at 20 kt. A recent scatterometer pass found
a distinct wind shift across the wave with fresh to strong winds
on either side north of 12N. Scattered weak convection is observed
from 10N to 16N between 49W and 59W.

The axis of a tropical wave associated with Potential Tropical
Cyclone Two is in the Caribbean near 77W, from 18N southward,
moving west at 18 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from
10N to 15N between 73W and 82W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Senegal near 14N17W
to 08N26W. The ITCZ extends from 06N32W to 04N52W. Scattered
moderate convection is observed within 180 nm of the ITCZ, east of
50W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

The gradient between high pressure ridging over the eastern Gulf
and lower pressure over Mexico is generating moderate to fresh
S-SE winds in the western Gulf with 3-5 ft seas. Moderate
easterlies are impacting the SE basin, including the Florida
Straits, with 2-4 ft seas. Winds are gentle in the NE basin with
1-2 ft seas.

For the forecast, An area of low pressure located along the southern
coast of Texas is forecast to move slowly northward and inland
over southeastern Texas overnight. Active weather is expected to
linger across the Texas coastal waters through Fri night.
Otherwise, a ridge will dominate the Gulf waters through the
upcoming weekend producing mainly gentle to moderate winds and
slight to moderate seas. Fresh NE to E winds will pulse at night
near the NW Yucatan peninsula through Mon night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information on
Potential Tropical Cyclone Two.

Outside of the conditions associated with Potential Tropical
Cyclone Two, strong easterly winds prevail over the central
Caribbean with 8-12 ft seas. Moderate to fresh winds dominate the
eastern Caribbean with 6-8 ft seas. Gentle to moderate winds
prevail over the NW Caribbean with 3-5 ft seas.

For the forecast, Potential Tropical Cyclone Two will begin to
move W-SW overnight and reach near 11.5N 80.2W Fri morning as a
Tropical Storm, near 11.3N 82.8W Fri evening, and then inland
across southeastern Nicaragua Fri night, before continuing
westward and emerging across the Pacific waters Sat evening. A
strong tropical wave located along 57W is forecast to move over
the Lesser Antilles on Friday and then over the eastern Caribbean
Sea Fri evening through Sat night. Any development of this system
should be slow to occur. Expect a broad surge of winds and seas
across the Atlantic and Caribbean waters with this wave as it
moves across the region.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The Azores high dominates the pattern in the Atlantic. In the
western basin, mainly gentle winds and 3-5 ft seas prevail north
of 27N and east of 77W while moderate SSE winds are observed off
the Florida coast. Moderate to locally fresh easterly winds are
noted south of 27N, including the Windward Passage, where seas are
5-8 ft. Fresh to strong winds are associated with the tropical
wave approaching the Lesser Antilles with 8-10 ft seas. In the
eastern Atlantic, NE winds are moderate to fresh with 7-9 ft seas
north of 17N with gentle winds and moderate seas south of 17N.

For the forecast W of 65W, the Atlantic ridge will continue to
dominate the forecast waters through the upcoming weekend. The
pressure gradient between the ridge and Potential Tropical Cyclone
Two will support fresh to strong NE to E winds N of Hispaniola
and in the Windward Passage through Fri night. Then, a strong
tropical wave forecast to move over the eastern Caribbean Sea by
the weekend will bring a surge of winds and seas across the waters
S of 22N Fri night through Sun.

$$
Flynn
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net