[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 301801
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Thu Jun 30 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Potential Tropical Cyclone Two is centered near 12.0N 74.9W at
30/1800 UTC or 520 nm E of Bluefields, Nicaragua, moving W at 17
kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb. Maximum
sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Seas 12 ft or
greater are within 120 nm from the center in the northeastern
semicircle, with peak seas of 14 ft. Scattered moderate convection
is within 30 nm of a line extending from 14N70W to 14N77W to
12N78W. A continued mostly westward motion with a decrease in
forward speed is expected through Saturday. On the forecast
track, the system will move across the southwestern Caribbean Sea
today through Friday, cross southern Nicaragua or northern Costa
Rica Friday night, and emerge over the eastern Pacific Ocean on
Saturday. Strengthening is forecast through Friday while the system
approaches Central America.  Weakening is expected while the
system crosses Central America, but restrengthening is forecast on
Saturday once it moves over the Pacific Ocean. Potential Tropical
Cyclone Two has a high chance of becoming a tropical cyclone
later today or tonight. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast
issued by the National Hurricane Center at website:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml
and the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

Western Gulf of Mexico: Recent satellite and radar imagery
indicate that showers and thunderstorms associated with an area
of low pressure near the southern coast of Texas have changed
little in organization since this morning. The disturbance is
forecast to move slowly northward and inland over southeastern
Texas later today. Slow development of this system is possible
while the low remains over water and it could still become a
short-lived tropical depression before it moves inland. Regardless
of development, heavy rain is possible along portions of the
Texas coast for the next two days. For more information about the
potential for heavy rain, please see products issued by your
National Weather Service office. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane
Hunter plane is currently enroute to investigate the system. This
area of low pressure has a medium chance of developing into a
tropical cyclone while it remains over water. Please see the
latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more
details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is in the E Atlantic just west of Cabo Verde, along
26W, from 18N southward, moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered
moderate convection is from 04N to 08N between 22W and 29W.

A tropical wave is along 52W, from 17N southward over French
Guiana, moving west at 10-15 kt. The two prior tropical waves
analyzed in this region have combined into one feature. Scattered
moderate convection is from 11N to 14N between 47W and 55W.

A tropical wave is along 72W, from 18N southward, moving W at 15-20
kt. Convection impacting the central Caribbean is described in
the Special Features section for Potential Tropical Cyclone Two.
Additional scattered moderate convection is noted over NW
Venezuela.

A tropical wave is analyzed inland over southern Quintana Roo,
Mexico, through Belize, Guatemala, and El Salvador. No significant
convection is noted with the tropical wave at this time. For
future information on this tropical wave, please reference the
Tropical Weather Discussion for the Eastern Pacific Ocean.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Senegal near 14N17W
to 07N24W. The ITCZ extends from 06N29W to 05N47W. Aside from the
convection associated with the tropical waves, scattered moderate
convection is within 180 nm of the ITCZ.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Please read the Special Features section for more information on
a low pressure system over the W Gulf.

A surface trough is located just inland over the central and NW
Gulf coast. Scattered moderate convection is from 28N to 31N
between 85W and 89W, including inland over the W Florida Panhandle
and S Alabama. Another area of scattered moderate convection is
from 27N to 31N between 92W and 96W, including inland over SE
Texas and SW Louisiana. Across the basin, outside of the SPECIAL
FEATURE, the latest scatterometer depicts light to gentle
SE winds along the periphery of the subtropical high pressure.
Seas are 2-4 ft across the basin, highest near the Special Feature.

For the forecast, ridging will dominate the Gulf waters through
the upcoming weekend producing mainly gentle to moderate winds and
slight to moderate seas. Fresh NE to E winds will pulse at night
near and to the W of the NW Yucatan peninsula through the forecast
period.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information on
Potential Tropical Cyclone Two.

The pressure gradient between Potential Tropical Cyclone Two and
the subtropical ridge to the north continue to support fresh winds
across the central and eastern Caribbean, with locally strong
winds detected north of Potential Tropical Cyclone Two. Seas are
6-8 ft in the Caribbean east of 65W. 8-11 ft seas encompass the
central Caribbean around Potential Tropical Cyclone Two, west of
65W to 77W. These significant wave heights were corroborated by an
earlier satellite altimeter pass. Between 77W and 80W, seas are
6-8 ft, then 4-6 ft in W and NW sections of the basin. Winds are
gentle to moderate in the NW Caribbean where seas are lower.

For the forecast, Two will move to 11.7N 77.0W this evening, 11.2N
80.4W Fri morning, 11.1N 83.0W Fri evening, inland and W of area
to 11.0N 85.6W Sat morning, 11.2N 87.8W Sat evening, and 11.8N
90.6W Sun morning. Two will change little in intensity as it moves
to near 13.2N 96.3W early Mon. A tropical wave located located
along 52W/53W is forecast to move over the Windward Islands on
Friday and then over the eastern Caribbean Sea by the weekend.
Any development of this system should be slow to occur. Expect a
broad surge of winds and seas with this wave as it moves across
the region.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Outside of the tropical waves described above, the tropical
Atlantic is dominated by the Azores high centered north of the
area. An upper level low just off the SE US coast has induced a
trough at the surface, analyzed across the Florida Peninsula. The
trough exist the coast at 29N81W near Cape Canaveral, Florida and
continues to 31N80W. Scattered showers are in the vicinity of the
trough axis. A weak surface trough, perhaps better described
simply as a weakness in the subtropical ridge given the lack of
significant weather, extends from 23N51W to 31N50W. North of 20N,
trades are gentle to moderate with 4-6 ft seas. South of 20N,
trades are moderate to fresh with 6-8 ft seas. An area of 8-9 ft
seas is noted in fresh to locally trades from 11N to 17N between
46W and the Lesser Antilles. Seas are locally 8 ft in the E
Atlantic east of 21W.

For the forecast W of 55W, the Atlantic ridge will continue to
dominate the forecast waters through the upcoming weekend. The
pressure gradient between the ridge and Potential Tropical Cyclone
Two will support fresh to strong NE to E winds N of Hispaniola
and in the Windward Passage through Fri night. Then, a tropical
wave forecast to move over the eastern Caribbean Sea by the
weekend will bring a surge of winds and seas across the waters S
of 22N Fri night through Sun, and across the area S of 24N and W
70W late Sun into Mon.

$$
Mahoney/Schluesche
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